大空头

Yeah, I’m sure of the math.
其实我姓姜 而且我会说英语
Actually, my name’s Jiang and I do speak English.
杰瑞德喜欢说我不会
Jared likes to say I don’t
因为他觉得这显得我的计算更加可信
because he thinks it makes me seem more authentic.
而且我在全国数学♥联♥赛拿的是亚军
And I got second in that national math competition.
所以你要提供给我们机会做空这堆积木
So you’re offering us a chance to
怎么实施
short this pile of blocks? How?
利用信用违约掉期
With something called a credit default swap.
就好比债券的保险 如果崩♥盘♥
It’s like insurance on the bond, and if it goes bust
你可以获利十倍 甚至二十倍
you can make 10-to-1, even 20-to-1 return.
现在崩♥盘♥已经在悄然发生
And it’s already slowly going bust!
十倍 二十倍 不可能
10-to-1? 20-to-1? No way.
没有人会注意到
And no one’s paying attention.
没有人在意
No one is paying attention!
因为银行正忙着卖♥♥这些债券
Because the banks are too busy getting paid obscene fees
好赚黑心钱
to sell these bonds.
等等 你就是银行的 你为银行工作
But wait. You are the bank. You work for the bank.
你的提成应该很有油水吧
I bet your margins are pretty nice and fat.
我们不谈我的提成
Let’s not talk about my margins, by the way.
有油水 真是顶高帽子
Being nice and fat, that’s a nice shirt. Do they make it for men?
你不是银行的人吗
Aren’t you the bank?
我在银行工作 但是我有不同的想法
I work for the bank. I don’t think like a bank.
不管大银行小银行 都是为了赚钱对吧
Big bank, small bank, I like to make money. All right?
这么说吧
Let me put it this way.
我站在着火的房♥子面前
I’m standing in front of a burning house…
问你买♥♥不买♥♥火险
and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.
这些相关债券真像你说的那么糟糕
How can these underlying bonds be as bad as you say?
这不合法吧
It wouldn’t be legal.
没人知道内部情况
Nobody knows what’s in them.
没人知道这些债券包括了哪些资产
Nobody knows what’s in the bonds.
我见过一些含有65%AAA资产的债券
I’ve seen some that are 65% AAA-rated
其实内部95%都由
that I know for a fact are filled with 95%
信贷评分低于550的次贷垃圾充数
subprime shit with FICOs below 550!
滚出去
Get the fuck out of here.
看来你们还不够吃惊
You want me to really blow your mind?
当一款债券被认为风险太高时
When the market deems a bond too risky to buy,
你觉得我们怎么处理
what do you think we do with it?
猜猜看
Take a guess.
不知道 你告诉我
I don’t know. You tell me.
你当我们只是书面上入个库 其实不然
All right. You think we just warehouse it on the books? No.
我们把一堆这样卖♥♥不掉的烂债券
We just repackage it with a bunch of other shit
重新包装成担♥保♥债务凭证
that didn’t sell and put it into a CDO.
-担♥保♥债务凭证 -没错
– A CDO? – Yes. A CDO.
那是什么
What is that?
我们会把卖♥♥不出的B级
This is where we take a bunch of B’s,
BB级和BBB级的债券
BB’s and BBB’s that haven’t sold,
堆在一起
and we put them in a pile.
堆得足够多了
And when the pile gets large enough,
看起来就极具多样性了
the whole thing is suddenly considered diversified
评级机构的混♥蛋♥们就把它评为
and the whores at the rating agency give it
含有92%到93%AAA级资产的债券
a 92%-93% AAA rating,
没有人怀疑
no questions asked.
等等 什么 再说一遍
Hold it. What? Say that again.
担♥保♥债务凭证
A collateralized debt obligation.
这是很重要的概念
It’s important to understand because it’s what allowed
因为它会让房♥地♥产♥危机成为全国金融危机
a housing crisis to become a nationwide economic disaster.
让世界名厨安东尼·伯尔顿来为你解释
Here’s world-famous chef Anthony Bourdain to explain.
我是个厨师 周日下午
Okay, I’m a chef on a Sunday afternoon
正在大餐馆定着菜单
setting the menu at a big restaurant.
我周五订了鱼
I ordered my fish on Friday,
就好比是迈克尔·柏利做空的抵押债券
which is the mortgage bond that Michael Burry shorted.
但有些新鲜的鱼没卖♥♥掉
But some of the fresh fish doesn’t sell.
我也不知道为什么 也许是因为
I don’t know why. Maybe it just
大♥比♥目鱼和海豚一样聪明
came out halibut has the intelligence of a dolphin.
那我怎么办呢
So, what am I going to do?
把没卖♥♥掉的鱼 就好比是BBB级债券
Throw all this unsold fish, which is the BBB level of the bond,
全部扔掉 承受损失吗
in the garbage and take the loss?
我不干
No way.
我是个狡猾的道德包袱又重的厨师
Being the crafty and morally onerous chef that I am,
不管什么卖♥♥不掉的坏食材
whatever crappy levels of the bond I don’t sell,
我都丢进炖海鲜里
I throw into a seafood stew.
它们不再是不新鲜的鱼肉 是崭新的菜
See, it’s not old fish. It’s a whole new thing!
你吃的其实是捕上来三天的大♥比♥目鱼
And the best part is they’re eating 3-day-old halibut.
这就是担♥保♥债务凭证
That is a CDO.
我想知道 这些债券是怎么过审的
I just need to know, how could these possibly be collated?
你就像爱冒险的朵拉一样
Somehow you’re like Dora the Explorer
成为了第一个发觉的人
and you’re the first person who found this thing.
等等 先别吵
Hold on. Hold on.
你是不是说抵押债券是骗人把戏
So mortgage bonds are dog shit,
担♥保♥债务凭证是包装过的骗人把戏
CDOs are dog shit wrapped in cat shit.
是的 就是这样
Yeah, that’s right.
各大机构对于担♥保♥债务凭证的态度
Institutions treat these
就好像他们如国库券一般稳健
CDOs like they’re as solid as treasury bonds,
但他们就要坍塌了
and they’re going to zero.
这不可能 单单去年
No. That can’t be right. There were $500 billion
就有五千亿的房♥地♥产♥债券售出
in housing bonds sold last year alone.
你是说评级机构 银行和狗屁政♥府♥
The rating agencies, the banks, the fucking government,
都坐视不管吗
you’re saying they’re all asleep at the wheel?
是的 我在的部门一直都是这样干的
Yeah. My whole department’s long on this stuff.
他们叫我小鸡仔 叫我泡沫男孩
They call me Chicken Little. They call me Bubble Boy.
A级的崩溃了 B级的也崩溃了
A’s, zero. B’s, zero.
BB评级和BBB评级的都崩溃了
BB’s, zero. BBB’s, zero.
然后那件事就发生了
And then that happens.
什么事
What is that?
倒塌的正是美国房♥地♥产♥市场
That’s America’s housing market.
谢谢
Thank you.
说的太棒了 杰瑞德
Fuckin’ A, Jared.
闭上你的臭嘴
Shut your fucking mouth.
-一起出去玩 -好的
– …hang out with you. – Good. Okay.
鼓起勇气来做 我们可以成为朋友
Sack up, do the deal. Let’s be friends.
我们再考虑考虑 谢谢
We will see. Thank you.
-别跟我说这些客套话 -好吧
– Don’t bullshit me. – All right.
你要拒绝了 是吗
You’re gonna say no, aren’t you?
不是 我只是在权衡
No. No, I’m just evaluating right now.
谢谢你来和我们说
Thank you. Thank you for coming in.
再见 杰瑞德
Bye, Jared.
我不喜欢他说的
I don’t like it.
他在耍我们
He’s playing us.
他在耍我们 他太会表演了
He’s playing us. He’s got too much skin in the game
甚至背弃了自己的职位
and he’s dumping his position.
万一他说得对呢
What if he’s right?
你希望他是对的
You want him to be right.
我当然希望
Yes, I do.
银行收我们25%的信♥用♥卡♥利率
The banks have given us 25% interest rates on credit cards.
学生贷款也压榨我们
They have screwed us on student loans
让我们永远在底层不能翻身
that we can never get out from under.
然后这个人进来和我说
Then this guy walks into my office and says
那些银行太贪心 背离了市场
those same banks got greedy, they lost track of the market,
而我则可以从他们的愚蠢中获利
and I can profit off of their stupidity?
我真♥他♥妈♥希望他是对的
Fuck, yeah, I want him to be right!
你怎么都不讨厌他
How come you don’t hate this guy?
他是你教我们不要信任的典型啊
He’s everything you taught us not to trust.
我讨厌不起来 他对于自己的利益
I can’t hate him. He is so transparent
非常坦诚 我甚至有点敬佩他
in his self-interest that I kind of respect him.
如果是从他那买♥♥车 那我肯定不干
Would I buy a car from him? No.
但是他对房♥贷市场的分♥析♥对不对
Is he right about the mortgage market?
-不对 -我们研究研究
– No. – Let’s find out. Let’s find out.
这是两个很简单的问题
Look. It’s two very simple questions.
房♥地♥产♥泡沫存在吗
Is there a housing bubble?
如果存在 银行面临多大的危机
And if there is, how exposed are the banks?
好吧