大空头

就意味着狗屎
“Shit”.
我们的朋友迈克尔·柏利发现了这些抵押债券
Our friend Michael Burry found out that these mortgage bonds
本应该65%都是AAA级组成
that were supposedly 65% AAA
实际上大部分都是狗屎
were actually just mostly full of shit.
所以他现在要做空这些债券
So now he’s going to “Short” the bonds.
意思是说打赌它要完蛋
Which means to “Bet against”.
明白了吗
Got it?
很好
Good.
现在滚蛋吧
Now fuck off.
其他人发现这个投资机会
It’s only a matter of time
只是时间问题
before someone else sees this investment.
我们现在就需要行动
We have to act now!
你怎么知道债券没有价值
How do you know the bonds are worthless?
他们不是都是上千页的
Aren’t they filled with fucking thousands
房♥贷支持的吗
of pages of mortgages?
我读过它们了
I read them.
-你读过了 -我读过了 是的
– You read them? – I read… Yes.
没人会读它们
No one reads them. Only
只有整理它们的律师才会读它们
the lawyers who put them together read them.
听着 我觉得他们都不知道自己创造了什么
Look, I don’t think that they even know what they’ve made.
房♥地♥产♥市场是由这些糟糕的
The housing market is propped up on these
房♥贷撑起来的
bad loans, and I’m…
这是颗定时炸♥弹♥ 我想做空它
It’s a time bomb, and I want to short it.
用什么金融工具呢 迈克尔
Through what instrument, Michael?
抵押债券没有保险合同或者期权
There are no insurance contracts or options for mortgage bonds.
债券太稳固了
The bonds are too stable.
劳伦斯
Lawrence…
我准备这么做 我要找家银行
This is what I’m gonna do. I am gonna get a bank
给我做一个
to make me one.
然后
And then
我会买♥♥下来
I’m gonna buy it.
我不想做那种生意
I don’t want that kind of business.
要赚钱有道 那是不义之财
Money is not money. That’s bad money.
拜托
Hey! Excuse me!
我问你 有哪家公♥司♥对待顾客
Let me ask you this. What company treats its customers
那么糟糕还能成功的
that shittily and succeeds?
好吧 高盛 有道理
Fine. Okay, Goldman. You’re right.
马克·鲍姆在工作中
Mark Baum had built his
坚信没有证据就不能假设任何人
career on never assuming anyone or any company
或任何公♥司♥是合法的
was legit without proving it.
他小时候在正统犹太小学
When he was a kid he excelled
学习《塔木德经》异常出色 随便了
at studying the Talmud in Yeshiva. Whatever.
但有一天拉比告诉了他妈妈原因
But one day his rabbi told his mom why.
保罗这孩子不错
Paul is a fine boy,
而马克《律法书》
and Mark is an excellent student
和《塔木德经》都学得很好
of the Torah and the Talmud.
那有什么问题吗 拉比
Then what’s the problem, rabbi?
关键在于马克那么努力学习的原因
It’s the reason Mark is studying so hard.
他想找出真♥主♥话语里前后不一致的地方
He’s looking for inconsistencies in the word of God!
那他找到了吗
So has he found any?
后来鲍姆在华尔街设立了自己的基金
Later, Baum started his own fund on Wall Street.
他对牛粪反应灵敏
He had an amazing nose for bullshit.
他不担心让别人知道
And he wasn’t afraid to let anyone know when and where
何时何地牛就要拉屎了
the bull had gone number two.
但后来马克遇上了悲剧
But then a tragedy happened to Mark,
使他的世界观变得一片黑暗
and it turned his world view dark
相信整个系统都谎话连篇
and ready to believe the whole system was a lie.
稍等
Hold on.
是辛西娅
It’s Cynthia.
我二十分钟内到办公室
I’ll be in the office in 20 minutes.
亲爱的
Hi, honey.
心理医生打电♥话♥来 你又那样了
The therapist called. You did it again.
打不到车 你说我该怎么办
There were no cabs. What was I supposed to do?
我担心你 马克
I worry about you, Mark.
至少我去了
At least I went.
你这样奔来跑去好像要
You’re running around like you have to right
-拯救世界 -好吧
– every wrong in the world. – Okay.
你总是很愤怒
You’re so angry.
好吧 不如这样
Fine. You know what?
我是个刻薄鬼 而且我生气了
I’m a mean guy and I’m pissed off.
但马上有场暴屎雨要来袭 亲爱的
But it is a shit storm out here, sweetie.
你根本不知道人们都在搞什么鬼
You have no idea the kind of crap people are pulling.
而他们都像
And everyone’s walking
恩雅的MV里那样走来走去
around like they’re in a goddamn Enya video.
他们都要完蛋了
They’re all getting screwed, you know.
你知道他们在乎什么吗
You know what they care about?
他们只关心球赛
They care about the ballgame.
或者哪个女演员进了戒毒所
Or they care about what actress just went into rehab.
我觉得你该试试药物治疗
I think you should try medication.
不行 我们已经达成一致了
No, no. We agreed.
那会影响工作
If it interfered with work.
你讨厌华尔街 或许是时候退出了
You hate Wall Street. Maybe it’s time to quit.
-我爱我的工作 -你讨厌你的工作
– I love my job. – You hate your job.
我爱我的工作
I love my job.
你真可怜
You’re miserable.
我爱我的工作
I love my job.
我爱我的工作 亲爱的
I love my job, honey.
马克
Mark…
我每天都为发生的事情悲伤
I am sad every day about what happened.
我知道你也是这种感觉
I know you must feel the same,
只是从没表现出来
but you never show it.
我知道你跟哥哥关系有多好
I know how close you were to your brother.
保罗
Paul.
你去哪儿了 保罗
Where’d you go, Paul?
保罗
Paul!
我每天都以为你会跟我谈 可你从没有
Every day I think you’re gonna talk about it, but you never do.
你能否至少考虑一下做点改变
Will you at least think about the idea of making a change?
好吧 亲爱的 我会考虑的
Fine. Fine. Honey, you know what? I will consider it.
但说实话 辛西娅
But, honestly, Cynthia.
我没事 真的
I’m okay. I really am.
不行
No, no.
这是我的出租车
My cab. That’s my cab.
我的出租车
That’s my cab. That is my cab.
-白♥痴♥ 滚蛋 -滚蛋
– Schmuck. Fuck you. – Fuck you.
-滚蛋 -滚蛋
– Fuck you. – Fuck you.
我待会儿打给你
I’ll call you later.
我想买♥♥抵押债券的掉期
I want to buy swaps on mortgage bonds.
一种信用违约的掉期 如果相关债券违约
A credit default swap that will pay off
我将得到收益
if the underlying bond fails.
你想反赌房♥地♥产♥市场吗
You want to bet against the housing market?
-是的 -为什么
– Yes. – Why?
只有当上百万美国人
Those bonds only fail
都不偿付房♥贷 这些债券才会违约
if millions of Americans don’t pay their mortgages.
这在历史上还从未发生
That’s never happened in history.
希望你不要介意 柏利博士
If you’ll excuse me, Dr. Burry,
这看上去是笔愚蠢的投资
it seems like a foolish investment.
基于流行文化中
Well, based on prevailing sentiment
对市场和银行的主流态度
of the market and banks in popular culture,
没错 这确实是笔愚蠢的投资
yes, it’s a foolish investment.
但 所有人都错了
But, uh… everyone’s wrong.
这说法不错
That’s a good one.
这可是华尔街 柏利博士
This is Wall Street, Dr. Burry.
如果你要送钱上门 我们自然会接受
If you offer us free money, we are going to take it.
我只担心一点 等债券崩♥盘♥的时候
My one concern is that when the bonds fail,
我需要确定能得到款项支付
uh, I want to be certain, um, of payment
以防贵银行没有偿付能力
um, in case of solvency issues with your bank.
抱歉 你是说真的吗
I’m sorry, are you for real?
你打算反赌房♥地♥产♥市场
You wanna bet against the housing market
而且担心我们不会给你钱
and you’re worried we won’t pay you?
没错 我是这个意思
Yes, that’s correct.