大空头

我要你给我找出
I want you to get me
卖♥♥的最好的前二十位的抵押债券
the top 20 selling mortgage bonds.
你是想知道这些债券都是什么吗
So you want to know what the top 20 selling mortgage bonds are?
不 我要知道每种债券都是哪些房♥贷支持的
No, no, no, I want to know what mortgages are in each one.
那些房♥贷不是由…
Okay, aren’t those mortgages made up of…
等等 那些债券不是由
Wait, aren’t those bonds made up
成千上万的房♥贷组成吗
of thousands and thousands of mortgages?
是的
Yeah.
马上去 柏利博士
Right away, Dr. Burry.
我是个好人
I am a nice guy all day long.
随便问问谁 我和人相处融洽
Ask anyone, I’m a pleasure to work with.
但一旦我儿子搞砸了 我
But the second my son screws up, I am…
冲他吼得就像我父亲吼我一样
…yelling at him just like my dad did to me.
我听见从嘴里出来的话
I hear the words that are coming out of my mouth and…
抱歉我迟到了 打不到车
Sorry I’m late! No cabs.
听听这个
So, get this.
我昨天见了一位零售银行家
I met with this retail banker yesterday.
我本来应该让他投资一个基金的
I’m supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund,
但取而代之的是
but instead
我开始盘问他透♥支♥的罚金
I start grilling him about overdraft penalties
以及他的银行是如何让顾客写了
and how his bank will let a customer write 10-12 checks
十到十二张支票才告诉他们已透♥支♥的
before they tell them they’re overdrawn.
这个变♥态♥
And this creep is making
通过这种方式挣了上百万
billions off screwing over people this way.
我越来越生气
And I’m getting madder and madder.
我看着他的脸对他说
And I ask him, I look him in the face and I say,
“你明知在剥削工薪阶层
“How can you sleep at night
晚上还怎么睡得着”
knowing that you are ripping off working people?”
你们知道他怎么做的吗 他走了
And you know what he did? He left.
他就那么走了 什么都没说
He just walks out of the lunch, doesn’t say a word.
他妈的这算什么
What the fuck is that?
那种情形下是谁搞砸了 是我吗
Who’s fucked up in that scenario? Am I?
还是把我晾在那里的那个混♥蛋♥
Or is this douchebag, who leaves me hanging?
是他搞砸了吗
Is he the fucked up one?
我们已经谈论过很多次了
We have talked about this numerous times.
你不能迟到还劫持整个互助会
You can’t come in late and hijack the entire session.
什么意思 我并没有劫持互助会
What do you mean? I didn’t hijack the meeting.
我劫持了互助会吗
Did I hijack the session?
是的
Yeah.
你是做什么的
What do you do?
我做期货的
I’m in commodities.
祝你好运
Good luck with that.
马克 我知道你损失了很多
Mark, I know you suffered a terrible loss.
也许你想谈谈这个
Maybe you want to talk about that.
我不想谈
I don’t talk about that.
稍等
Hold on.
等一下
Hold on…
该死 这个我必须得接 抱歉
Shit, I have to take this. Sorry. Sorry.
不 我不管 波特
No… I don’t care, Porter.
这家伙的生意是建立在剥削他人之上
This guy’s whole business is built on ripping people off.
这样能维持多久
How long can that last?
各位再见
Bye, everybody!
九十五
95…
那是三十天后 六十天后
That’s 30 days late… Sixty days late…
他们付款及时…
They pay on time…
这些信贷评分…
These FICO scores…
晚了 他们被发现…
Late. And they caught up on their payments…
又晚了三十天付款…
Another 30 days late…
客户终身价值 95 90 他们被发现…
LTV, 95… LTV, 90… They caught up on their payments…
晚了六十天付款 天哪
Sixty days late? Jesus!
客户终身价值 110 从没见过这样的
LTV, 110? I’ve never heard of that!
晚了三十天 利率调整
Thirty days late, rate adjusts…
07年调整了
In ’07 rate adjusts…
06年调整了
In ’06 rate adjusts…
95 90 天哪
95… 90… Jesus!
他一整天都没离开过
He hasn’t moved all day.
他每隔几天就会这样
He does this every few days.
他雇了我之后就没跟我说过话
He hasn’t spoken to me since he hired me.
也许客户终身价值在… 高风险
Maybe the LTV’s at… High-risk,
只有利率 我从没听过那个抵押历史
interest-only… I never heard of that mortgage history,
我从没听过 怎么可能
I never heard of that… How?
迈克尔 你好吗
Michael, how are you, guy?
劳伦斯 我发现了些很有趣的事
Lawrence, I found something really interesting.
很好 迈克尔 每次你发现有趣的事
Great, Michael. Whenever you find something interesting,
我们都赚钱了
we all tend to make money.
你在估值哪只股票
What stock are you valuing?
不 不是股票
No, no, no, no. No stocks.
我想要做空房♥地♥产♥市场
I want to short the housing market.
是吗 房♥地♥产♥市场可是稳如磐石啊
Really? But the housing market is rock solid.
格林斯潘刚刚才说
Greenspan just said
泡沫是区域性的 违约是少见的
bubbles are regional, defaults are rare.
告诉他们我一会儿就来
Tell them I’ll be there in a minute.
-再说一遍 -听着
– Say again? – Look, look…
格林斯潘是错误的
Greenspan’s wrong.
我觉得你不是故意这样的 但有时你听起来
I don’t think you mean to do this, but sometimes you sound very
相当轻蔑 满是优越感
dismissive and superior.
这是事实 格林斯潘是错的
It’s a fact. Greenspan’s wrong.
我不知道你还想让我说什么
I don’t know how else you want me to say…
迈克尔
Look, Michael.
大都会资本四年前在你
Metro Capital backed you four years ago
还只是一名医生 只有一个
when you were a doctor with a
小网站和一些遗产的时候支持了你
dinky webpage and some inheritance money.
我们都做得很好
We’ve all done very well.
你为什么不专注于股票呢
Why don’t you just stick with stocks?
你了解我 我…
Look. You know me. I, I, I…
我会寻找一切投资价值
I look for value wherever it can be found.
事实是
And the fact is
那些住房♥抵押贷款支持证券充满了
that these mortgage-backed securities are filled
极度危险的可调利率次级贷款
with extremely risky subprime adjustable-rate loans.
等大多数浮动利率
And when the majority of the adjustable rates
在07年开始执行时
kick in, in ’07,
他们就会开始下跌
they will begin to fail.
如果下跌超过15% 整个债券就一文不值了
And if they fail above 15%, the whole bond is worthless.
迈克尔 休息一下
Michael, just take a beat.
我们晚点再谈这个 好吗
We’ll talk about this later, okay?
劳伦斯 请不要敷衍我 听着
Lawrence, please, don’t patronize me. Listen…
住房♥抵押贷款支持证券
Mortgage-backed securities.
它
It, it, it…
次级贷款 打包在一起
Subprime loans. Tranches.
很难懂的概念 对吗
It’s pretty confusing, right?
让你觉得厌烦 或者愚蠢吗
Does it make you feel bored? Or stupid?
就应该这样
Well, it’s supposed to.
华尔街喜欢用复杂的概念
Wall Street loves to use confusing terms
让你觉得只有他们才能做那些事情
to make you think only they can do what they do.
或者更好的是
Or, even better,
让你远离他们
for you to just leave them the fuck alone.
所以用玛格特·罗比的泡泡浴解释一下
So here’s Margot Robbie in a bubble bath to explain.
通常来说 路易斯·拉涅利的抵押债券
Basically, Lewis Ranieri’s mortgage bonds
对于大银行来说利润丰厚
were amazingly profitable for the big banks.
他们通过卖♥♥这些债券所收取的
They made billions and billions on their 2% fee
2%的手续费赚取了亿万财富
they got for selling each of these bonds.
但接着抵押住房♥资源开始枯竭
But then they started running out of mortgages to put in them.
毕竟只有那么多的房♥屋
After all, there are only so many homes
只有那么多有能力买♥♥它们的人
and so many people with good enough jobs to buy them, right?
于是银行开始用更有风险的
So the banks started filling these bonds
房♥贷来支持这些债券
with riskier and riskier mortgages.
谢谢你 本特
Thank you, Benter.
那样的话他们就能继续盈利了 对把
That way they can keep that profit machine churning, right?
对了 这些高风险房♥贷叫次级贷款
By the way, these risky mortgages are called subprime.
所以每当你听见次级贷款
So whenever you hear “Subprime”, think