大空头

How could I lose, right?
这就是个经典的错误
Now, this is a classic error.
在篮球中这叫热手谬误
In basketball it’s called the Hot Hand Fallacy.
运动员连续投球命中
A player makes a bunch of shots in a row.
人们确信他们会投中下一个
People are sure they’re gonna make the next one.
人们认为现在发生的一切
People think that whatever’s happening now
将来还会继续发生
is gonna continue to happen into the future.
在房♥地♥产♥繁荣时期 市场持续火热
During the real estate boom, markets were going up and up
人们就认为房♥价再也不会下跌
and people thought they would never go down.
所以有些人边观察边想
So people who are watching and think that I won’t lose
我不会输 然后开始下注
will make a side bet.
这是第一个综合债务担♥保♥
Now, this is the first synthetic CDO.
我爱赛琳娜·戈麦斯
I love Selena Gomez.
我出5000万美元赌她会赢
I bet you $50 million she wins.
我给你3比1的赔率
And I’ll give you 3-to-1 odds.
3比1的赔率 我赌
3-to-1 odds? Okay, I’ll take that bet.
现在 有其他人想赌
Now, somebody else is gonna want to make a bet
他们赌博的结果
on the outcome of their bet.
5000万赌她赢
Bet you 50 million she wins.
这就是综合债务担♥保♥2号♥
That will lead to synthetic CDO number two.
我出2亿跟你赌
Hey, I bet you $200 million that lady in the glasses
戴眼镜的女士会赢
wins that bet.
她可能会赢 所以我想要巨大的回报
She probably will win. So I want a great payoff.
20比1怎么样
How about 20-to-1?
成交
Deal.
这会一直继续 产生更多的综合性CDO
And this will go on and on with more and more synthetic CDOs.
我们可以把原始的1000万美元投资
And we can transform an original $10 million investment
变成几亿美元
into billions of dollars.
你没事吧
You okay?
没事
No.
我其实很恶心
I actually feel pretty sick.
我要走了
So I’m going to leave.
你觉得我是个寄生虫 是吧 鲍姆先生
You think I’m a parasite, don’t you, Mr. Baum?
可是 社会显然觉得我很有价值
But, apparently, society values me very much.
事实上 我们来做笔交易
In fact, let’s do this.
我会告诉你我值多少钱
I’ll tell you how much I’m worth.
你告诉我你值多少钱
You tell me how much you’re worth.
天哪 你就是一砣大狗屎
God, you are an incredibly big piece of shit.
那个人碰了什么就给我做空什么
Short everything that guy has touched.
再投五个亿进去
I want half a billion more in swaps.
你确定吗 抵押品会让你破产的
You sure about that? The collateral calls could bankrupt you.
我确定
Yeah. Yeah.
你要去哪里
Where are you going?
我要去轮盘桌上
I am going to try to find moral redemption
找道德救赎
at the roulette table.
事情比我想得要更糟
Things are worse than I thought.
我真的觉得经济会崩溃的
I honestly think the economy might collapse.
但你一直说
But you’ve been saying
这机制都已经崩坏好几年了 马克 所以
that the system’s broken for years, Mark. So…
你有什么好惊讶的
Why are you so shocked?
因为它比我想象得更可怕
It’s more twisted than I could have imagined.
你一直都喜欢做好人
You love to be the virtuous one.
我是个银行家 我是这之中的一部分
I’m a banker. I’m a part of it.
你一直都是 马克 但
You always have, Mark. Like
-出淤泥而不染 -它让我变成了一个
– you’re untainted. – It changed me. It changed me into a person
不会伸手去帮助别人的人
who is not able to reach out to someone…
他很痛苦 我的弟弟在受苦
He was in pain. My brother was in real pain.
本来就没什么好办法可以帮他
There’s no perfect way to help.
是很悲伤 很吓人
It’s sad. It’s scary.
所以别再尝试拯救世界了
So stop trying to fix the world.
他告诉我
He told me…
你不是圣人
You’re not a saint.
圣人是不会住在公园大道上的
Saints don’t live on Park Avenue.
说他还有一些不好的想法
…that he was having bad thoughts.
就像普通人一样去感受自己就好了
Just feel the feelings like the rest of us.
我的第一反应是给他点钱
My first response was to offer him some money.
我他妈的给了他点钱
I offered him fucking money!
他的脸都摔烂了
His face was so smashed.
哭出来就好了
That’s right.
迈克尔
Michael?
-迈克尔 -在的 我在
– Michael? – Yes. Yes.
-没事吧 -没事 亲爱的
– Is everything okay? – Yes, honey.
-你确定吗 -没事 宝贝
– You sure? – Yeah, baby.
我没事
I’m fine.
致投资者
To all investors.
如你们所知
As you may know,
我们的协议允许我在市场运行脱轨的情况下
our agreement allows me to take extraordinary measures
采取一些非常手段
when markets aren’t functioning properly.
我现在有理由相信抵押债券市场
I currently have reason to believe the mortgage bond market
是存在欺诈的
is fraudulent.
所以为保护投资者们免遭虚假市场的伤害
So, in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market,
我决定要限制投资者撤资
I’ve decided to restrict investors’ withdrawals
请等待更进一步的通知
until further notice.
迈克尔·J·柏利博士 敬上
Sincerely, Dr. Michael J. Burry.
我从未想到过我的生活在搬到洛杉矶之后
I never would have guessed my life
会发生如此翻天覆地的变化
could change as much as it has since I moved to L.A.
不见你
It’s not just,
不是那么容易做到的
like, that easy to, like, not see you.
他痛斥了那些说他使用了违禁药物的留言
He lashed out at rumors he used performance enhancing drugs.
这个记录是没有被污染过的
This record is not tainted.
天呐 兄弟
Oh, my God, dude.
能别再换台了吗
Will you please stop changing the channels?
-你快把我逼疯了 -好吧
– You’re driving me crazy. – All right.
-好吧 -搁到经济频道就好
– Fine. – Just put the business news on.
标准普尔指数上升了3个点
…and the S&P picked up three points.
老天爷啊
Jesus!
房♥贷市场崩溃今天仍在继续
Mortgage meltdown continued today.
次贷出借人新世纪金融公♥司♥
Subprime mortgage lender New Century Financial,
昔日的行业领头人 申请了破产
once the industry leader, by the way, filed for bankruptcy.
该公♥司♥马上
The company immediately…
好的我们继续
Good time for my voice to go…
裁员了3200人
Fired 3,200 workers.
三月制♥造♥业指数也有所下跌
The manufacturing index also fell in the month of March…
开始了
It’s starting.
专家提醒说经济增长趋势会放缓
…A warning that economic growth could slow.
供应管理学会
The Institute of Supply Management
也出♥台♥了价格上涨报告
also reported a rise in prices…
我要打给我妈
I’m gonna call my mom.
经济增长放缓的主要原因是
The principal source of the slowdown in economic growth…
一次又一次
Time and time and time again,
我都帮了你 马克
I have gone to bat for you, Mark!
我们已经认识七年了
We’ve known each other for seven years…
嗓门真大 真厉害
She’s got some lungs on her. I’m impressed.
看她发火我还挺享受的
I can’t help but enjoy it.
他妈没道理啊 他妈没道理
There’s no fucking way. There’s no fucking way
这些大银行都蠢成这样
that the big banks are that stupid.
再见 凯西
Bye, Kathy!
怎么样
Well?
凯西觉得我们做空
Kathy thinks that it would be a good idea
是个好主意
if we sold our shorts.
还有什么新闻不
What else is new?
她还说了摩根斯坦利投资公♥司♥会买♥♥
And she said that Morgan Stanley will buy them.
操
Holy shit!
你怎么说的
What did you say?
我跟她说我们什么也不卖♥♥
I told her we’re not selling shit.
如果你需要2005年的文件的话…
Uh, if you need the files for 2005…
菲尔德先生的诉讼尤其需要去年的资料
Mr. Fields’ suit is very specific to files from the past year.
好 出去吧 替我跟劳伦斯说声好
Good. Then get out. Say hi to Lawrence for me.
好的
Will do.
你整整一周都不回复我
You can’t call me back for a week?
真抱歉 迈克