大空头

No, I’m not doing anything right now.
就像我刚才说的 我们的房♥地♥产♥部门
As I was saying, our residential department…
孩子们怎么样
How are the kids?
消费者对我们产品的反应
…consumers reacted to our packages…
马克·鲍姆真的做到了
Mark Baum really did that.
我们在维加斯的时候 他做到了
When we were in Vegas, he did that.
他提问了 他还接了电♥话♥
He said that, he took the call.
现在你知道我对付他有多难了吧
Now you see what I had to deal with?
你那把贝瑞塔凑活吧
Yeah, the Beretta… Meh.
我这把冲锋真♥他♥妈♥爽翻了
But this Uzi is fucking awesome!
要是这债务担♥保♥生意能再持续两年
I need this CDO machine to run for another two years.
我就发大财了 就能在阿斯彭买♥♥♥房♥♥了
And then I’m rich as fuck and I got my house in Aspen.
但你担心这些基础资产证券化
But do you have any concerns about the performance
它们的风险吗
of the underlying securitizations?
拖欠和违约率
It’s easy to see that delinquencies
现在明显在上涨
and default rates are on the rise right now.
你能不能别这么扫兴
Could you please stop being such a buzzkill, dude?
我们带你来这儿不是来讨论工作的
We didn’t bring you out here to talk about work, bro.
那你带我们来干吗
Why did you bring us out here?
我们得把子弹钱从客户那儿挣回来
Because we need to be able to expense the ammo to a client.
我要去射恐♥怖♥分♥子♥了
I’m gonna go shoot some terrorists.
看我给你们来一手 小子们
Watch how it’s done, boys!
两个白♥痴♥
These guys are morons.
这枪真♥他♥妈♥厉害
Fucking tool.
两个白♥痴♥
These guys are morons.
爽暴了
Fuck, yes! Boom!
我们要把这里所有
We need to be buying up
买♥♥得起的掉期都买♥♥下来
every swap we can get our hands on here.
等下 好吗 等下
Just hold on, okay? Hold on.
我哥的前女友在证券交易委员会工作
My brother’s ex-girlfriend works for the SEC.
她刚才说她在这里
She just told me she’s in town, okay?
我们如果漏了什么细节 她或许能告诉我
So, if we’re missing something, maybe she can tell me.
给我点内部消息什么的
You know, give me some insight.
你也别闲着
In the meantime, you go to the main floor
去主楼打听下掉期的价格
and price some swaps.
其实 我们正打算投资一些房♥地♥产♥债券
Well, actually, we’re about to invest in housing bonds, and…
我在想证交会对这块有没有什么担忧
I was wondering if the SEC is worried about them at all.
我知道你不能透露信息
I know you’re not allowed
但给些方向也好
to tell me specifics, but just generally.
我们不调查房♥贷债券
Oh, we don’t investigate mortgage bonds.
其实 因为预算缩减
Truth is, since we got our budget cut,
我们已经不怎么做调查了
we don’t investigate much.
那你来这儿干吗
Then why are you here? I thought…
我不是来出差的
I’m not here for the SEC.
是因为有私事
I’m here on my own dime.
我在看能不能跳槽到某个大银行
I’m floating my resume to some big banks.
对了 你哥最近怎么样
How’s your brother, by the way?
你怎么能跳槽到大银行呢
How are you floating your resume to big banks?
我是说 你本来应该是
I mean, you’re supposed to be the ones,
监管大银行的
you know, policing the big banks.
别那么幼稚了 杰米
Grow up, Jamie.
肯定有什么法律规定
There must be some kind of
从金融监管机构离职后不能立即
law against working for a financial institution
到金融机构工作吧
right after you’ve been working in financial regulation, right?
没有 没有
No. No.
你好 道奇
Hey! Dougie!
你好 过来 你在这儿干吗
Hey! Come over here. What are you doing at Caesars?
他在高盛工作
He’s at Goldman.
回见
See you.
或许我们可以在500基准点做BBB级掉期
We can do BBB-level swaps at 500 basis points. Maybe.
你给出的掉期价让人觉得 无论债券价值
You’re pricing the swaps like the bond is gonna collapse
如何上涨 最终还是会暴跌 对吧
even though the bond value’s going up? Really?
世事如此
Sign of the times.
到底怎么回事
What the hell is going on?
路易斯 你明天能早点来吗
Lewis, can you come in early tomorrow, please?
我得抛售美国国际集团 全美金融
I need to unload the AIG and Countrywide
全美金融 房♥屋抵押贷款机构
和房♥地美头寸
and Freddie Mac positions
这样我们才能有钱
so that we can afford the premiums on the…
交房♥贷空头掉期的溢价
…core mortgage shorts on the swaps.
没问题 柏利博士
No problem, Dr. Burry.
-柏利博士? -怎么了
– Dr. Burry? – Hmm?
要是投资人撤资
If the investors withdraw,
结果会怎样 我们就完蛋了吗
what’s going to happen here? Are we done?
说实话 我不知道
Honestly, I don’t know.
债券不会下跌
The bonds aren’t going down.
它们根本不会动 很可能
They won’t move. It’s possible
我们在一个完全做假的系统里
that we are in a completely fraudulent system.
或者 你判断错误
Or… You’re wrong.
也是
Sure.
我也可能犯错 我只是不知道错在哪
It’s possible I’m wrong. I just don’t know how.
我猜犯错的人根本不
I guess when someone’s wrong, they never…
他们根本不知道错在哪
They never know how.
明早见
See you in the morning.
明早见
Yeah.
连贝尔都提价了
Even Bear upped their prices.
他们还一直叫我们棕蛋[布朗菲尔德]
And they keep calling us Brownhole.
只是因为你们钱不够多 名不够响
You just don’t have the money or the reputation.
别太当回事
Don’t take it personally.
我今晚不想去脱衣舞俱乐部了
I don’t think I have the strip club in me tonight.
我只要一杯姜汁汽水
I’m just gonna get some ginger ale
看些付费表演就好
and watch some pay-per-view.
我去订明早离开的机票
I’ll book us some flights out for the morning.
我们需要一笔生意 对吗 生意
A deal. We need a deal, right? A deal.
一笔能我们担得起的生意
We need a deal we can afford.
一笔别人不会拒绝的生意
We need a deal that they’re not gonna refuse.
那么 我们能怎么办 我们能
So… What can we do? We can…
AA级份额 我们赌AA级份额怎么样
The AA tranches. What if we bet against the AA tranches?
谁会拒绝这场赌局呢
Who’s not gonna take that bet?
他们说其中95%是AAA级的
We know they say they’re 95% AAA-rated,
可实际上大多只有25%
but in reality they’re more like 25%.
有些根本就没有
Some of them are 0%!
而且如果低级份额超过8%就违约
We also know that if the bottom tranches fail at over 8%,
那高级份额就会受影响
the upper tranches are affected.
它们会变成零
They go to zero.
我敢打赌现在那些AA其实更像B
I’ll bet you right now that those AA’s are actually like B’s.
当我没说后面这句话
I rarely ever say these words,
可我觉得查理是对的
but I think Charlie’s right.
你看 本
Look, Ben.
收益是
The payoff
200比1
is 200 to 1.
但他们只看面值的评级
But they’re all taking the ratings at face value.
所以他们对AA份额
So they’re charging pennies
只会收很少的溢价
on the dollar a bet against the AA’s.
你们和我想的一样天真
Just when I start thinking you guys are clowns…
世界上没人会赌AA级份额
No one on the planet’s betting against AA’s.
银行会以为我们不是喝大就是抽风了
The banks will think we’re either high or having a stroke.
他们会收下我们交的每一分溢价
They’ll take every dime we have to offer.
挺聪明
Kinda brilliant.
我们这可真是创举啊
This is what we did that no one else thought of.
连鲍姆和柏利都没想过做空AA
Not even Baum or Burry thought to short the AA’s.
但我们想到了
But we did.
小小的棕蛋资本
Little Brownhole Capital.
我们有兴趣买♥♥空债务担♥保♥的AA份额
We’re interested in shorting some of the AA tranche of CDOs.
不是吧 为什么
Come on, guys, what’s the angle?
不为什么 我们是新手 有点兴奋
Oh, got no angle. We’re new to this. We’re just excited.
我们想做1500万美元的AA份额掉期
We want to do $15 million in swaps on the AA tranche.
我不明白
I don’t understand.
你想买♥♥多少AA份额就买♥♥多少
You can buy as much AA tranche as you want.
4000万美元赌AA
$40 million against the AA.
兄弟 你要多少我卖♥♥多少
Brother, I will sell you as much as you want.