第十一个小时（2007）

So as we go forward with technology even more powerful than before…
当我们拥有更强的科学技术
…we have magnified…
我们就会在生态学的范畴内
…the presence of the human race inside the ecology.
扩大人类的影响
Therefore we can do more damage…
在我们还没有认识到
…with our technological prowess than we could before.
问题的严重性前， 通过我们强大的科技
We have to be even more cautious.
就会制♥造♥出前所未有的更大的破坏力
While we weren ‘t looking…
当我们开始思考
… we’ve created one of the biggest problems facing all of humanity:
就会发现我们制♥造♥了 人类史上最大的问题
Climate change. How does it look…
气候变化，这是怎么形成的呢
… when we don ‘t pay attention to the massive amounts of CO 2…
是因为我们向空气中， 水中排放了过多的二氧化碳
…we dump into the air and water? How does it look when our actions…
而并没有引起我们的注意吗？
…shift the natural chemical balance of our atmosphere…
是不是我们利用 自然界中的化学资源
…into a state several degrees warmer?
使得全球温度变暖呢？
A state that hasn’t existed for millennia.
一个国家不可能存在一千年
We have witnessed, in recent years…
在最近的几年里，我们见证了
…the highest average temperatures in recorded history.
有史以来的最高平均温度
A couple of degrees difference in today’s temperatures may not sound like much…
也许现在温度提高了几度影响并不大
…but it only took a few degrees to shift us out of the last ice age.
但也正是温度提高了几度， 冰河时期消失了
And a few degrees may be all that separates us from catastrophic change.
也许正是这几度， 就能把我们从灾难中拯救出来
…the weather and the climate are making news in more than one region.
天气和气候在很多地区都成为了话题
A terrible drought has already…
一场可怕的干旱已经……
We do not know how much our climate could or will change in the future.
我们不知道未来气候发生怎样的变化
Severe flooding has killed at least 72 people…
在这场特大洪水中，已经有72人死亡
…in Central and Eastern Europe and Western Russia.
欧洲的中部和东部还有俄♥罗♥斯♥的西部
The heaviest recorded rainfall in Indian history…
印度经历了有史以来最大的暴雨
…has unleashed the worst flooding in memory.
已经造成了特大洪水
We do not know how fast change will occur…
我们不清楚这种变化的速度
…or even how some of our actions could impact it.
也不知道是什么行为对它造成了影响
In Chicago, the heat is a plague. This morning, they were collecting bodies.
芝加哥，高温持续， 今天早晨，很多尸体……
– Firefighters in Southern California are battling a newly-formed super wildfire.
南部加州地区的消防人员 抢救特大火灾
The heat is on. Even Arizona is having a heat wave.
高温在持续，亚利桑那州 正经历着滚滚热浪
Tennessee was battered by killer tornados…
田纳西州被龙♥卷♥风♥袭击
New Orleans is no longer safe to live in. It is that simple, and that stark.
居住在新奥尔良已经很不安全了
Hell and high water, one and the same again today, in a city overwhelmed…
今天又一次到达高水位， 欲将淹没城市的危险
…under siege, in the grip of unmitigated, unprecedented catastrophe.
这是史无前例的，严峻的灾难
Nowhere is that more apparent than New Orleans…
新奥尔良再明显不过
…now a city of displaced people, refugees.
已经成为难民营
Twenty feet of water from Lake Pontchartrain.
来自旁恰特雷恩湖的 二十英尺高的水位
Add to that violence, deprivation, desperation, the threat of disease…
给当地人♥民♥造成了灾难，暴♥力♥， 剥削，绝望和疾病的威胁
Could it be that man-made global warming…
这会不会是人为因素 造成的全球气候变暖
…is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people?
来愚弄美国人♥民♥？
One of the most serious consequences of our actions is global warming…
我们的行为造成的 最严重的后果就是全球变暖
…brought about by rising levels of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.
这种变暖源于燃烧化石燃料 排放的碳氧化物
The danger is that the temperature increase…
造成的危害是
…might become self-sustaining, if it has not done so already.
温度会自发的持续升高
Drought and deforestation are reducing the amount…
干旱和森林砍伐使得碳氧化物
…of carbon dioxide recycled into the atmosphere.
无法被循环吸收
And the warming of the seas may trigger the release…
海洋变暖会使原本存在于海洋板块中
…of large quantities of CO2 trapped on the ocean floor.
大量的二氧化碳释放
In addition, the melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets…
另外，南极和北极的冰层的融化
…will reduce the amount of solar energy reflected back into space…
会减少太阳能的反射
…and so increase the temperature further.
这样升温会更严重
We don’t know where the global warming would stop, but the worst-case scenario…
我们不知道全球变暖什么时候 会停止，但最糟糕的是
…is that Earth would become like its sister planet, Venus…
地球会变成金星的情况
…with a temperature of 250 centigrade and raining sulfuric acid.
250度的高温和酸雨
The human race could not survive in those conditions.
在这种条件下，人类无法生存
Earth has a natural greenhouse effect.
地球有自然的温室效应
We’re 60 degrees Fahrenheit warmer…
我们已经比原先的温度 高了60华氏温度
…thanks to the good guys, water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane…
由于水蒸气，碳氧化物和甲烷的作用
…what we call greenhouse gases, trapping heat.
这些都是温室效应气体， 它们能吸收热量
That’s the good part of the story.
这是比较关键的环节
The problem is that humans are competing with nature.
问题在于人类正在和大自然竞争
When we use tail pipes and smokestacks to put our waste into the atmosphere…
当我们用尾气管和烟道排放废气时
…as if it’s some kind of unpriced sewer…
这就好像是下水道
…we’re adding to the greenhouse gases that’s natural, unnatural stuff.
无形中，我们就加大了原有的温室 效应气体，加入了非自然的因素
Mostly carbon dioxide, methane, chemicals that nobody’s seen before…
这些包括碳氧化物，甲烷， 还有一些我们也没见过的化学元素
…chlorofluorocarbons, which also affect ozone.
比如氯氟化碳， 它会对臭氧层造成破坏
And when they build up, they trap extra heat.
这些一旦形成，就会吸收过多热能
That’s not controversial, that’s well-understood.
这是没有争议的，也是众所周知的
We know we’ve increased carbon dioxide by about 30, 35 percent…
我们增加了大约30%到35%的碳氧化物
…methane, 150 percent…
增加了150%的甲烷排放量
…added gases that never existed before. And the Earth is warmer.
也增加了从未出现过的气体， 地球在变暖
All of that goes together and makes global warming…
这些因素结合在一起， 造成了全球变暖
…not only a reality, but a concern for the future…
这不仅关系到现在，也会影响未来
…because we’re continuing doing what we’re doing at an accelerating rate.
因为我们只能加速我们的作为
The record shows that greenhouse gases…
记录表明温室气体
…mainly CO2, did not go above 280 parts per million…
主要是二氧化碳，在过去的65万年中
…over the last 650,000 years.
每百万单位没有超过280单位
We’re now over 400 parts per million…
而现在，这个值已经达到400单位了
…coming close to what many scientists are now referring to as a tipping point.
快接近科学家预测的最高值了
A tipping point where we lose control of climate.
这个最高值是我们控制范围的最大值
And once we’ve lost control of climate…
一旦我们无法控制气候
…then things like Katrina-scale events will become simply the norm.
就会很频繁的出现卡特里娜事件
Unless we’re able to quickly reduce…
除非我们能迅速的减少排放量
…very quickly and very dramatically reduce our use of fossil fuel…
大幅度的减少化石燃料的使用
…the computer modeling’s clear. Having increased the temperature one degree…
计算器模型显示的非常清晰， 温度每升高一度
…we’ll increase it about another 5 degrees.
就又会增加5度
That’ll make the Earth warmer than it’s been for tens of millions of years.
这就是为什么地球变暖速度 快于几百万年前的原因
Some scientists are amazed that in the media and in front of Congress…
一些科学家对于媒体 和国会的言论相当吃惊
…we hear about people who “I believe in” or “I don’t believe in” global warming…
我们经常听到人们说 「我相信」或「我不相信」全球变暖
…as if this were somehow some object of religion, as opposed to based in evidence.
就像它是某种宗教信仰， 而不是源于科学依据
And scientists look at evidence.
科学家是根据证据来得出结论的
The scientists have a tremendous amount of agreement…
科学家已经在全球变暖基本原理方面
…over some of the basic principals of global warming.
达成了共识
Is the Earth warming? Absolutely.
地球在升温吗？ 绝对是
Is some portion of the warming due to human activity? Absolutely.
部分原因源自人类行为吗？ 绝对是
These are things that, there’s a consensus in the international scientific community.
国际科学团体一致认为
There’s no doubt about that. The natural changes…
是人类的行为加速全球变暖
The speed of the natural changes is now dwarfed by human changes…
大自然变化的速度被人类
…to the atmosphere and surface.
改造环境和地球表面的行为所掩盖
Jim Hansen, who is the director of the NASA Institute for Space Studies…
美国国家航♥空♥和航♥天♥管理局 主管吉姆.汉森
…recently gave a best estimate that was based on research done last year.
最近根据去年的研究提出了一项预测
And the current estimate is that the Earth has warmed up…
预测表明
…by about seven-tenths of a degree centigrade.
地球的温度以0.7摄氏度的速度增长
And even if we were to cap CO2…
即使我们努力减少二氧化碳
…carbon dioxide emissions to the level they are now…
碳氧化物的排放量
…the Earth should still warm by an additional half a degree centigrade.
地球的温度依然 会以摄氏0.5度的速度增长
That’s been enough to melt 20 percent of the sea ice in the Arctic.
这个温度足以融化北极20%的冰川
It’s been enough to speed up the spin and duration of hurricanes about 50 percent.
同样也会以50%的速度 加速龙♥卷♥风♥的威力和持久度
It’s been enough to start the permafrost…
这个温度足以使北部地区
…beneath the tundra across the north melting.
冻土地带下的永久冻结带融化
Even at the low range, a couple of degrees in the average…
即使是很窄的范围内， 平均温度提高几度
…really changes things in places. There’s an amplifying effect, like in the Arctic.
也会造成很大的影响， 就像北极那样，有放大效应
You can feel this, the chunk that we’re on, actually starting to fail a bit more.
你能感觉到，我们脚下的 这块冰川，已经开始断裂了
There’s probably hairline cracks up towards the helos there.
这个裂缝一直延伸
The human impacts…
人类对全球变暖
…what’s happening with global warming, climate changes…
气候变化的影响
…it is happening first and fastest in the Arctic.
最先也最快的在北极表现出来
We’re starting to see that things are happening even faster…
我们认识到变化越来越快
…than what scientists indicated.
超过了科学家的预期
By the end of the century, perhaps even in a few decades…
这个世纪末，也许几十年后
…the Arctic will be quite ice-free.
北极可能就没有冰山了
Well, climate change…
气候变化
…is going to have a strong, fundamental impact on the global water cycle.
会对全球水资源圈造成很大的影响
It’s going to change rainfall patterns.
它会改变降雨的模式
It’s going to very likely increase our experience with floods and droughts.
会导致更多的洪水或者干旱
It’s almost certainly going to change the pattern of river flows through the year.
很有可能会改变河流的形态
These are all very fundamental aspects of how we manage and use water.
而这些都是我们使用 水资源的基础方式
What global warming does…
全球变暖
…or the climate changes linked to global warming do…
或者气候变化导致的全球变暖