When are you coming home?
很快，很快， 他们…
Soon. Very soon. They, you know…
你还是去你妈妈家吧 – 不要
Why don’t you go, uh, to your mom’s? – No.
去威斯康星州
Just stay in Wisconsin.
不要，她不需要我
No. She doesn’t need me.
她有丹陪着，我要留下来
She’s got Dan. I live here.
你没人陪伴，我不会丢下你的
You don’t have anybody. I’m not leaving you.
截止今天下午5点
We have 47 cases
共有47例疑似病人，8人死亡
and eight deaths as of 5 this afternoon.
现在是周末，这些数字可能会低点
It’s a weekend. These numbers might be low.
人们都呆在家里观察几天，看情况是否好转
People are staying home for a couple days, see if they get better.
根据这点判断，我认为是呼吸感染
At this point, I think we have to believe this is respiratory.
也可能是受感染的衣服和被褥等
Maybe fomites too.
什么意思?
What’s that, fomites?
呃，是指病毒通过表面介质传播
Uh, it refers to transmission from surfaces.
平均每人每天触摸他们自己的体表2-3000次
The average person touches their face 2- or 3000 times a day.
2-3000次每天？
Two- or 3000 times a day?
醒着的每一分钟平均触摸3-5次
Three to five times every waking minute.
期间，我们会接触门把手…
In between, we’re touching doorknobs…
…饮水机，电梯按钮，还有其他东西等
…water fountains, elevator buttons and each other.
这些东西会变成污染物源
Those things become fomites.
这是我们要公布的东西？
Is this something we wanna release to the press?
呼吸系统疾病和污染物？
Respiratory and fomites?
公众会作何反应？
How’s the public gonna react?
很难说，一部电影里的塑料鲨鱼…
Hard to say. A plastic shark in a movie…
…会让人害怕到远离海洋 但是对于香烟的警告
…will keep people from getting in the ocean, but a warning on cigarettes…
在大家惊慌失措前我们必须通知政♥府♥人员
We need to walk the governor through this before we freak everybody out.
我是指，我们现在甚至不能告诉公众
I mean, heh, we can’t even tell people right now
他们应该害怕的东西是什么
what they should be afraid of.
以前猪流感爆发时我们试过这样做
We tried that with swine flu.
结果使得健康的人们非常惧怕
All we did was get healthy people scared.
这是今年最大的购物周末
It’s the biggest shopping weekend of the year.
我们需要考虑关闭学校
We need to consider closing schools.
谁留在家里陪孩子？ 他们都在商店上班
And who stays home with the kids? People that work at stores.
政♥府♥工作者，在医院工作的人们
Government workers. People that work at hospitals.
什么时候我们才知道这是什么病毒？
When will we know what this is?
是什么引起的？ 什么药物可以治愈？
What causes it, what cures it?
这些可以让公众保持镇定
Things that keep people calm.
我们需要决定的是：
What we need to determine is this:
因为这些已经感染病毒的人…
For every person who gets sick…
…其他正常的人有多少可能会被感染
…how many other people are they likely to infect?
对季节性流感来说，平均数一般为1
So for seasonal flu, that’s usually about one.
如果是天花， 这个数字大于3
Smallpox, on the other hand,it’s over three.
还没有疫苗之前…
Now, before we had a vaccine…
脊髓灰质炎的传播速率在4-6之间
…polio spread at a rate between four and six.
我们称这些数字为…
Now, we call that number…
R0平均数
the R-nought.
R代表该病毒的繁殖率
R stands for the reproductive rate of the virus.
能知道这种病毒的传输速率吗？
Any ideas what that might be for this?
传播速度取决于多种因素
How fast it multiplies depends on a variety of factors.
病毒的潜伏期，一个人会感染的时期长短
The incubation period, how long a person is contagious.
有时候即使人们没有症状也会有传染性
Sometimes people can be contagious without even having symptoms.
我们必须清楚这个
We need to know that too.
我们需要知道
We need to know
容易感染该病毒的人群的基数有多大
how big the population of people susceptible to the virus might be.
这样说来所有有手、嘴和鼻子的人都有可能了
So far that appears to be everyone with hands, a mouth and a nose.
只要我们知道了R0的平均数值
Once we know the R-nought,
我们就可以着手处理大规模的疫情
we’ll be able to get a handle on the scale of the epidemic.
这么说这是种流行病，什么流行病？
So it’s an epidemic now. An epidemic of what?
我们已经给疾控中心寄去了样本
We sent samples to the CDC.
72小时之内就可以知道是什么病毒了
In 72 hours, we’ll know what it is
如果幸运的话
if we’re lucky.
很明显，我们不太走运
Clearly, we’re not lucky.
BLS-4级生物安全实验室
明尼苏达州的一个年轻女子最近去中国旅行过
A young woman in Minnesota, recently traveled to China.
她儿子也死了
Son also died.
截止今天早上，87个疑似病例，15人死亡
As of this morning, 87 cases, 15 deaths.
感恩节过得如何？ – 我在加班
Did you have a good Thanksgiving? – I worked.
你加班？ 真的吗
You? Really?
得克萨斯州，沙门氏菌，病毒数量很少
Texas. Salmonella. Pretty limited.
我感恩节过得不错，谢谢你的询问
Mine was great, thanks.
噢
Oh.
病毒呈现多形性 但主要倾向于卵形
It’s pleomorphic, but tends toward ovoid in shape.
表面结构看起来很像糖蛋白
I see structures on the surface that look like glycoproteins…
但是没有病毒特有的形态
…but there’s nothing morphologically pathognomonic.
我们测试了她身上所有的抗体
We tested all her antibodies.
交叉反应不多
I didn’t see much cross-reactivity.
她的身体完全没有抵抗能力，情况不断恶化
Her body had no idea what to do with it. It just kept amplifying.
把这个发给旧金山的萨斯曼
Send it to Sussman in San Francisco.
如果他也查不出这是什么病毒的话
If he doesn’t know what it is,
没人会知道了
nobody does.
这种病毒显示了新奇的特性
It shows novel characteristics
跟原生细胞嵌合在一起
and appears to be chimeric in origin.
病毒有15至19个碱基长度
Virus is 15 to 19 kilobases in length
拥有6-10个基因
and containing six to 10 genes.
典型的副粘病毒
Typical of a paramyxovirus.
是哥斯拉、金刚和弗兰肯斯坦的结合体
It’s Godzilla, King Kong and Frankenstein all in one.
等一下，我等下给你打过去
Hold on. Shit, I’ll call you back.
你已经到了
You’ve got it in there.
离开这儿
Get away from here.
病毒从何而来？是军方泄露的吗？
Where’d it come from? Military?
你既不是医生，也不是作家
You’re not a doctor and you’re not a writer.
不，我是个作家，没错
Yes, I am a writer. Yes, I am.
写个博客可算不上作家
Blogging is not writing.
只不过是标点符号♥的拼凑罢了
It’s graffiti with punctuation.
我是个记者 我的博客有知情讨论相关的板块
I am a journalist, and there’s informed discussion on the blogosphere…
…这种病毒是生化武器
…that this is a biological weapon.
你想和我谈的话
You wanna talk to me,
打个电♥话♥去我办公室预约吧
call my office and make an appointment.
疾病爆发第7天
米切尔医生？ – 是我
Dr. Cheever? – Yes.
你有时间吗？ – 有
Do you have a moment? – Sure.
我们找到他了 告诉在去他家路上的人来这里
We found him. Tell the unit on the way to his house to come in.
抱歉，请问你是？
Excuse me. Who are you?
我是Dennis French 国土安♥全♥部♥门的
My name is Dennis French with the Department of Homeland Security.
你来的目的是？
And what’s this all about?
海军少将汉格迪希望我们能前往紧急行动中心
Rear Admiral Haggerty’s expecting us in the emergency operations center.
到那儿后我们可以讨论下
We can discuss it there.
这是发生在九龙的
This happened in Kowloon.
今天我们发现了一些澳门赌场的
Today we’ve got workers at a casino in Macao
工作人员引起了格外的注意
striking over conditions.
3人死在工棚里 CIA认为这之间有某种联♥系♥
Three have died in one bunkhouse. CIA thinks there may be a connection.
赌场是国土安♥全♥部♥门特别留意的地方
Casinos are of particular concern to Homeland Security.
一些人在披萨店或者当地市场里准备暴♥动♥了
Someone’s ready to blow themselves up at a pizzeria or the local market…
他们认为自己感染了天花
…the thought of getting themselves sick with smallpox…
进过拥挤的赌场，他们一定这样想过
…and walking through a crowded casino must have crossed their mind.
这3人的死因是什么？
What did they die of, the three?
报告上说一个未知，一个是癫痫发作，一个昏迷
Reports are vague. Seizures, comas.
我们已经接触了世界卫生组织
We’ve reached out to the WHO,
看看他们查到些什么
see what they know.
如果你有什么计划 现在是行动的最佳时机
If you were gonna plan it, can’t think of a better time.
计划什么？ – 攻击
Plan what? – An attack.
有人能对抗禽流感吗
Is there any way someone could weaponize the bird flu?
人不需要对抗禽流感
Someone doesn’t have to weaponize the bird flu.
禽兽会这么做
The birds are doing that.
官方报告说要关闭郊区的
Officials are reporting the closing of Mondale Elementary School…
明尼阿波利斯蒙代尔小学
…in suburban Minneapolis…
以此预防最近爆发的不明疾病
…in response to the recent outbreak of a still-unknown disease…
该疾病已经让一个学校护士和3个学生送命
…that has so far taken the life of a school nurse and three students.
其他281区域的学校仍然照常上课
Other schools in District 281 will remain open…
但是已经通知家长们
but parents have been notified to
让任何有症状的孩子留在家里