逐冰之旅（2012）

它整个夏天都在崩裂
This thing is gonna break off all summer long man.
看看这个
Look at this.
这些半岛的消失也就用了几天
Those peninsulas are, are just a matter of days…
最多几个礼拜
at most, a couple weeks.
它很大
It was huge.
一千五百英尺——有五个足球场那么长
It was five football fields long… 1,500 feet long.
水面以上三百英尺
And about 300 feet above the surface of the water.
我们在安装照相机的同时也装了摄影机
As we’re setting up the cameras, we also set up a video camera,
让它对准了那个半岛
and had it pointed right there, at that peninsula,
我们把摄影机一直开着
and we just had it rolling.
以防万一
Just in case.
我的上帝 一个巨大的裂缝刚刚形成
Oh my God, a giant crack just formed.
看啊 整个岛都要消失了
See that whole island, it’s going away.
开始了 哥们儿
There it goes man.
我们只在那里一个小时
We were there for just a one hour period of time.
却幸运地录下了
And, absurdly, somehow fortunately captured an event
这难得一见的场景
that seldom is caught on film.
此时我们眼前正经历着
There is this really big stuff happening right
巨大的变革
under our noses, happening right now.
但我觉得时间紧迫
But I feel like time is clicking, you know.
我们必须把摄像机安装起来
And we need to get these cameras out here.
六号♥摄像机 阿♥拉♥斯加
好了 前进
Okay. Onward.
这事儿太疯狂了
The logistics of things are just like, crazy.
提醒你他将想法付诸行动的决心之大
It reminds you how far he’s willing to take an idea.
七号♥摄像机 阿♥拉♥斯加
抬起头
Heads up!
拧紧 拧紧 拧紧
Tight, tight tight.
八号♥摄像机 阿♥拉♥斯加
十号♥摄像机 阿♥拉♥斯加
十二号♥摄像机 阿♥拉♥斯加
这是今天的晚餐
This is tonight’s dinner,
我刚找到的
I just found out.
八 七 六 五
Eight, Seven, Six, Five.
十五号♥摄像机 格陵兰岛
十六号♥摄像机 格陵兰岛
十八号♥摄像机 格陵兰岛
二十二号♥摄像机 格陵兰岛
朋友们 这就是我们的交通方式
Ah, this is the way to travel,my friend.
最后 我们在格陵兰岛安装了十二台摄像机
We ended up installing about a dozen cameras in Greenland,
冰岛五台 阿♥拉♥斯加五台 蒙大拿两台
five in Iceland, five in Alaska and two in Montana.
老实说 我难以相信
Frankly, I can’t believe we actually managed
我们真的实施起来了
to pull this off.
你要知道 大约二十年前
You know, about 20 years ago,
我很怀疑气候是不是真的变化了
I was a skeptic about climate change.
我以为这只是基于电脑模型推导出的结论
I thought is was based on computer models,
有很大的夸张成分
I thought maybe there was a lot of hyperbole
被激进分子用作借口
that was turning this into an activist cause.
最重要的是 我不认为人类有能力
But most importantly, I didn’t think that humans were capable
改变整个星球
of changing the basic physics and chemistry
最基础的物理和化学现象
of this entire huge planet.
这看起来不可能 也不可行
It didn’t seem probable, it didn’t seem possible.
后来我了解到了冰层中的记录
And then I learned about the record that’s in the ice cores.
以及藏于冰岩蕊里的气候演变史
The history of ancient climate that was embedded in those cores.
还有冰川所讲述的故事
And the story that the glaciers were telling.
格陵兰岛和南极洲的冰盖是巨大的圆顶
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are these giant domes of ice
它记录了气候 就像树的年轮一样
that preserve climate records, very much like tree rings.
雪落在顶层 变成了冰
Snow is added to the top, turns into ice,
科学家通过钻取冰盖来获得冰岩芯
and ice core scientist can drill holes through the ice sheets
把它抽出来检测 不仅检测冰
and pull out a core and examine, not only the ice,
也检测包裹在冰中的古时的空气气泡
but also bubbles of ancient air that are trapped in the ice.
通过分♥析♥冰的化学成分,可以得知旧时的气温
By looking at the chemistry of the ice, we can learn about past temperature,
而通过分♥析♥空气
and by looking at the air,
我们可以测出其中二氧化碳的含量
we can actually measure the carbon dioxide content.
我们得出的其中一项结论是
One of the things that we learn, is that past temperature
过去的气温与二氧化碳同时变化
and carbon dioxide vary together.
他们同时上升或下降
They go up together, they go down together.
在过去大约八十万年里
And over the last 800,000 years or so,
大气中的二氧化碳含量
atmospheric carbon dioxide was never higher
从未高于0.028%
that about 280 parts per million.
直到我们向大气中排放二氧化碳
Until we started adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
现在已高达0.039%
And now it’s about 390 parts per million.
比自然形成的二氧化碳量
And that’s about 40 percent higher than it was
高出40%
when carbon dioxide was only varying for natural reasons.
但现在正接近0.05% 甚至更高
But now we’re heading for 500 parts per million or more.
这是自然增长速度的
That pace is a 100 to 1000 times greater than the pace
一百至一千倍
at which things have changed by themselves, naturally.
震惊我的是 气候变化如此之小
The amazing thing to me is that we’re already seeing impacts
却已经产生了那么重大的影响 不是吗
because the change already has been so small, right?
从1850年左右以来
It’s been 0.8 degrees C,
只有0.8摄氏度 1.5华氏度的变化
about 1.5 degrees Farenheit since 1850 or so.
全球却已乱象丛生
And yet we’ve seen so much stuff…
疯狂的事不断上演
crazy stuff going on already.
对我来说
What counts to me more than the notion
空气的变化比气候变化更引起我注意
of the climate changing, is that the air is changing.
我们生活在空气中 它维持我们的生命
The air that we live in, the air that sustains us,
空气中的基本物理化学成分产生变化
the basic physics and chemistry of that air is changing.
这是你我呼吸的空气
This is about the stuff that you and I breath.
它会影响到一切 农业
And that effects everything in the agriculture
我们周围一切动植物的供水
and the water supply of all the plants and animals around us.
动植物在逐渐消亡
Plants and animals are already going extinct.
现在它们消亡的速度
They’re going extinct a 100 times faster now
比一千年前快一百倍
than they did 1000 years ago.
由于气候持续变暖
And as the climate continues to warm, we’re going to loose more
我们将失去更多物种
and more, and more species because we’re going
因为自然界会受到进一步迫♥害♥
to have more suppresses happening.
在未来的200至300年里
We’re going to have a mass extinction event
将会有大量物种消亡
that could happen within the next 200 to 300 years.
大量物种消亡意味着我们将失去半数
Mass extinction event means that we loose half,
或是地球上
or maybe three quarters of the number of species
总物种数的四分之三
that we have on the planet.
我们会失去为我们净化水的植物吗
Are we going to be loosing the plants that clean our water?
会失去净化空气的植物吗
The plants that clean our air?
如果没有传粉者来传授花粉
If there’s no pollinators out there to pollinate,
我们就得自己动手
then we’re going to have to do it by hand.
在中国已经是这样——必须走出去
And they’re already doing that in China… having to go out
人为地给农作物授粉
and pollinate their crops by hand.
在过去二十年 我们失去了
In the last 20 years, we have lost,
亚马逊-新墨西哥州接近20%的森林面♥积♥
close to 20 percent of the forest area in Arizona-New Mexico.
这对那些森林地区来说是高度致命的
And that’s a high mortality in those forest areas.
我们看到火灾多发季的长度
We have seen an increasing in the length of the fire season
延长了不止两个月
by more than two months; larger fires
过去二十年 美国西部频发大火
in the Western United States in the last 20 years;
我们还看到了更猛烈的火势
and we’ve seen hotter fires -more extreme fires burning.
我所看到的极端现象并非巧合
It’s not just by chance that I’m seeing many rare events
它们一次又一次地发生
happening all in sequence, you know.
是有原因的
There’s a reason for that.
我们看到的是环境的巨大变化
We’re seeing extraordinary changes in our environment.
慕尼黑再保险公♥司♥是全球最大的再保险公♥司♥
Munich Re is the world’s largest
我们的商业模型就是
re-insurance company and our business model is
为保险公♥司♥提供保险
to provide insurance for the insurance companies.
由于慕尼黑再保险公♥司♥主要投保的是
As Munich Re is a major reinsurer for natural perils,
自然危险和自然灾害
natural catastrophes; we need
我们需要尽可能了解这些风险
to know the risks as best as we can.
我们发现了一些由自然危害引起的损失
We have discovered some trends in the number
及数据上的趋势
and in the losses natural perils have caused.
有趣的是 和天气有关的事件
And, interestingly, for the weather related events,
人类活动 主要是温室气体的排放
our activities… primarily greenhouse gas emissions…
导致更多更严峻事件的发生
are contributing to more intense and more events.
这不单是数据上报的完善
It cannot be acclaimed by just better reporting,
也是由气候条件变化引起的
it has to be explained by changes in the atmospheric conditions.
想象一个服用类固醇的棒球手
Imagine a base ball player on steroids
他跑到本垒打出全垒打
who steps up to the plate and hits a home run.
你能说他的全垒打是服用类固醇的结果
Can you attribute that home run to his taking steroids?
正常情况下 人体也能产生微量类固醇