脱欧：无理之战（2019）

过来
Come here.
至少他们会记得你
Well, at least they will remember you.
多好啊
That’s something.
他在蹦呢
He’s kicking.
和他爸爸一样
Like his dad.
这梗也太老了
That was corny.
BBC新闻
观众朋友们晚上好 欢迎收看BBC新闻
A very good evening to you, and welcome to BBC News.
“投票脱欧”和”留在欧盟英国更强”获得任命
Vote Leave and Britain Stronger in Europe have been designated
成为欧盟公♥投♥中脱欧派和留欧派的官方代表
the official Leave and Remain campaigns in the EU Referendum.
2016全民公♥投♥
三 二 一
..Three, two, one!
我要留欧
投票脱欧
帷幕正式拉开
And we’re off!
两大阵营的任命标志着
The ten-week count down to the Referendum
全民公♥投♥十周倒计时正式开始
has begun in earnest with the designation of the two campaigns.
留欧更强阵营 由首相杰里米·科尔宾
Stronger In, backed by the Prime Minister, Jeremy Corbyn,
以及几乎所有主流政党支持
and almost all mainstream parties.
而脱欧派的投票脱欧阵营
On the Leave side, Vote Leave,
则包含六名内阁成员
which contains six cabinet ministers,
以及140名保守党议员
and 140 Conservative parliamentarians.
大家投脱欧票 投脱欧票
Vote Leave everyone, Vote Leave!
6月23日
时间仅剩
你是如何看待此次任命的
What were your thoughts when these decisions where announced?
休 我看到了一些明显分歧…
Well, Huw, there have been real divisions…
去他妈的
Fuck them!
那些为英国脱欧而奔走呼号♥的人
..Those who are campaigning for the UK to leave Europe.
现在我们脱离了一切束缚 可以做自己喜欢的事了
Now we’re free from any constraints, we can do what we like.
做旁观者反而更好玩
It’s more fun being outsiders.
关了吧
Turn it off.
我们也知道对方阵营的拉票模式
We also know that the other side are going to run a campaign
一定不会与过去70年里的
the way campaigns have been run for
拉票模式有太大差别
pretty much the last 70 years.
他们会从中部开始拉票 将重点归结于
They’re going to fight from the centre, make it about jobs
工作机会和经济
and the economy.
我们把焦点放在经济发展和就业问题上
We focus on the economy and jobs.
我们要传递的信息 脱欧会对两者造成威胁
The message – leaving risks both.
92年克♥林♥顿♥的拉票宣言无人能敌
Clinton, ’92, best campaign ever.
“经济是关键 蠢货”
“It’s the economy, stupid.”
将对手定义为风险更大的选择
You define your opponent as the riskier option.
尽管刚开始对手可能会获得较高的民♥意♥支持率
And, though the change candidate might initially poll well,
等到公♥投♥日♥逼♥近的时候 选民就会开始恐慌
come election day, the nerves kick in,
改变心意 支持中♥央♥
voters revert back to the centre.
政♥治♥学定律 如果在正式拉票开始前
Law of political science, if the status quo are ahead
保持忧虑 提高警惕
先考虑现状的话 就像我们现在这样
before the campaign begins, which we are,
就一定能赢得最终胜利 因此…
they always win on the day. So…
-所以我们的出路是什么 -《孙子兵法》
– So, what’s our answer? – Tzu’s The Art of War.
投票脱欧
如果我们在他们的主场作战 赢的是他们
If we fight them on home terrain, they will win.
出自《孙子兵法·九地篇》
所以我们要做的是引导他们至第九阵地
So, what we need to do is lead them to the ninth battlefield,
即”死地” 没人料到自己会出现在那里
the deadly ground, where no-one expects to find themselves.
结果呢 他们全军覆灭
Outcome? They perish.
-言下之意是 -我们调换阵地
– Which means? – You reverse the proposition.
就业和经济
使他们成为风险高的一方
We make them the risky option.
留欧意味着我们将会失去更多珍爱的事物
To stay is to risk losing more of the things we cherish.
我们希望选民不要抵♥制♥原状
We’re asking voters not to reject the status quo,
而是回归原状 回归独♥立♥
but to return to it. To independence.
欧盟成员国每周需要花费多少钱
How much does it cost us, each week, to be members of the EU?
大约在…
In the regions of about…
-我们的调查员叫什么 -理查德
– What’s our researcher’s name? – Richard.
理卡多 你能给我欧盟成员国
Ricardo! Will you get me all the figures of
每周花费的所有数据吗
how much it costs to be members of the EU for a week!
选最大那个给我
Largest one wins.
要确保是真实数据
Make sure it’s verifiable!
焦点小组座谈
Focus groups.
确定目标人群的身份及喜好
Finding out who we are, and what do we like,
这样我们就可以将其分类并各个攻破
so we can segment and target.
首先最容易争取的 是激进的国际主义派
First, the easiest, we have the Ardent Internationalists.
占投票人口的11% 支持同性婚姻
11% of the voting population. Support gay marriage,
受过大学教育 不论如何都会投留欧
degree educated. Going to vote to stay, no matter what.
激进的国际主义派
然后是另一极端 抵♥制♥欧盟派
Then the other end, the EU Hostiles.
抵♥制♥欧盟派
同样占11% 通常已退休 房♥贷已还清
Similarly 11%. Generally retired, mortgage-free.
98%都是白人 他们也不会改变立场
And 98% white. Won’t change either.
然后是安逸的亲欧派
And then we have our Comfortable Europhiles,
有自己的房♥子 从BBC获取新闻
own their own home, get their news from the BBC.
大多数会投留欧
Most probably remain.
安逸的亲欧派
还有强烈的怀疑派
And our Strong Sceptics.
英国常用社会阶层分级
从高到低分为A B C1 C2 D E六个级别
社会阶层相对较低 通常55岁以上
C2DEs, generally 55 plus,
强烈的怀疑派
受教育程度较低 大多数会投脱欧
O-levels and no higher, most probably leave.
这不是高深的科学 其实很简单
It’s not rocket science, it’s simple.
一共有三种类型的选民
There are three types of voter.
那些肯定会投脱欧的人占三分之一
Those certain to vote to exit, that’s one third.
已是囊中之物 所以可以忽略
Well, they’re in the bag, so, ignore them.
那些肯定会投留欧的人也占三分之一
Those certain to stay, that’s another third.
我们无法撼动他们 所以不用管
We can’t touch them, so fuck ’em.
剩下三分之一则是”我想脱欧 但我不清楚
The last third “I would like to leave, but I’m worried about
这会对就业和生活水平会产生什么影响”
what the effect will be to jobs and living standards.”
这些人是我们唯一需要关注的群体
These are the only people that we need to care about.
相信我 这也是我们对手的目标人群
And, trust me, the others will be after exactly the same bunch.
这些人才是决定投票结果的关键
Now these are who will decide the result.
英国成年人分为七种不同类型
优柔寡断派和冷漠的中间派
The Hearts vs Heads, and the Disengaged Middle.
优柔寡断派
占全体选民的34%
34% of the electorate.
优柔寡断派大部分是女性
Hearts vs heads are mainly female.
-我是桑德拉·布彻 -你好 桑德拉
– Sandra Butcher. – Oh, hi, Sandra.
从邮报在线获取新闻
Get their news from Mail Online.
他们的内心喊着脱欧 但大脑会担心
Their heart says leave, but their head is worried.
冷漠的中间派通常租♥房♥♥住
Disengaged Middles are generally renters,
从脸书获取新闻
get their news from Facebook.
-舒玛拉 -你好 舒玛拉
– Shamara – Hi, Shamara.
大多数从来没思考过欧盟问题
Most have never given any thought to the EU whatsoever.
请问谁非常有可能在即将举♥行♥的公♥投♥中投票
Erm, who is very likely to vote in the upcoming referendum,
距离公♥投♥日68天
请举手
show of hands?
好的
OK, good.
舒玛拉 请问你是有可能 不可能
Shamara, are you likely, unlikely,
非常不可能 还是不知道
very unlikely, or don’t know?
我觉得有可能 但我还需要
I’d say likely but I just need to
-好好想想 -我是不知道
– get my head round.- Don’t know, for me.
如果有人能说服我留欧或者脱欧 那有可能 但是
If someone can convince me either way, then probably, but…
当提欧盟时你们会想到什么
So, what do you think of when you think of the EU?
它是干什么的
What does it do?
他们为每个国家制定法律
They make laws, for each country.
那里的法律推♥翻♥了这里的法律
Laws over there that overturn laws over here.
但他们不需要负责任
Only they’re not accountable.
你可以 你可以给他们投票
Well, you do, you do vote for them.
-欧洲议会议员 -我不投
– MEPs. – I don’t.
-那个嘛 -它是法♥院♥ 对吗
– Well… – It’s, it’s the courts, it…it…isn’t it?
他们有人♥权♥法庭
They have the Human Rights,
我不想这么说 但是
which, I’m sorry, but
比如无法驱逐的恐♥怖♥分♥子♥ 就得
things like the terrorists you can’t deport, which, well…
通行自♥由♥对吗 货物和人都是
That’s freedom of movement, isn’t it? Goods and people?
欧洲共同体最初成立的目的就是这个对吗
That’s what the old community was for, right?
没有关税 自♥由♥贸易
No tariffs, free trade…
指1951年成立的欧洲煤钢共同体
但欧洲共同体只负责煤炭和钢铁
Old community was Coal and Steel.
那才是它成立的目的 现在它变得太庞大了
That’s all it was meant to be. But now it’s got too big.
没错 目的不是让人来 我是指无限制地让人进来
Yeah, not people, I mean not unlimited people,