打破边界：我们星球的科学（2021）

新冠毒病的出现
The appearance of COVID-19
是一个明确的警告 显示我们的星球一切都很糟糕
was a clear warning that all is not well with our planet.
但是它也给了我们一个在新的方向重建的机会
But it’s also given us an opportunity to rebuild in a new direction.
现在约翰与他的同事们打开了前灯
Now that Johan and his colleagues have turned on the headlights,
我们能够清晰地看到那些界限
we can clearly see the boundaries.
我们可以看到回到安全空间的路径
We can see the path back to a safe space,
通往更具韧性的未来
to a more resilient future.
这是可以实现的
It is achievable.
这不再是一个在这里做经济增长
It’s not a question anymore of doing economic growth here
然后再在这里做一些减少环境影响的问题了
and then do some environmental impact reduction over here.
现在 这是围绕可持续性
Oh no, now it’s a question of framing the entire growth model
制定整体增长模式的问题
around sustainability,
让这个星球来引导我们要做的一切
and have the planet guide everything we do.
当务之急是将碳排放减少到零
An immediate priority is to reduce carbon emissions to zero
并把全球温度稳定在尽可能低的水平
and stabilize global temperature as low as we possibly can.
那扇窗还在为我们敞开着 让我们能够避免让气温超过2度
The window is still open for us to be able to avoid passing two degrees.
甚至开到让我们把气温控制在1,5度
It’s even open to come to 1.5.
但是这扇窗真的只是…
But the window is really just…
勉强打开
It’s… It’s barely open.
自从工业革命开始以来
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution,
我们已经排放了2,4万亿吨♥二氧化碳
we have emitted 2,400 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
想要把温度控制在1,5摄氏度以下
To stay below 1.5 degrees,
我们必须再排放少于3000亿吨♥二氧化碳
we must emit less than 300 billion tons more.
如果我们每年的排放量是400亿吨♥
If we continue to emit 40 billion tons each year,
我们将在七年内耗尽预算
our budget will run out within seven years.
当然 我们不可能在一夜之间
Of course, we cannot shut down
关闭世界上所有的能源设施
all energy utilities in the world overnight,
所以唯一有秩序的方法是
so the only orderly way to do this
现在要改变全球的排放曲线因为这是所有科学的研究证明
is to bend the global curve of emissions now,because that’s what all science shows.
现在是我们改变全球曲线的最后机会
Now is the last chance we have to bend the global curve.
我们能够实现的最快速的
What is the most rapid pace of emission reduction
减排速度是多少？
that we can accomplish?
没有研究表明 我们可以比每年百分之六、七的速度更快
Well, there’s no study that suggests that we can go faster than 6, 7% per year,
因为如果每年百分之六、七的话那就是在十年内减少一半
because 6, 7% per year, that is cutting by half in a decade.
每十年将减少一半排放量
Cutting our emissions in half every decade
是指数级的变化速度
is an exponential rate of change.
任何人都可以采用这种速度
Anyone can adopt this pace.
我和你可以单独行动
I mean, you and I can do it as individuals.
我们可以说：“从现在开始 我和我的家人
We can say, “Okay, from now on, myself and my family
将尝试每十年减少一半排放量“
will try to cut emissions by half every decade,”
这意味着 你在这一代30年间
which would mean that you would be fossil fuel-free
不使用化石燃料
in one generation, in 30 years’ time.
公♥司♥可以做到 或者国家可以做到
And a company can do it, or a country can do it,
或者世界可以 也必须做到
or the world can/must do it.
当然 逐步淘汰化石燃料
Phasing out fossil fuels will, of course,
将开始我们回到地球界限范围内
begin our journey back towards the safe space
安全空间的旅程
within the climate boundary.
这将大幅减少空气污染
And it will also substantially reduce air pollution
还能减缓海洋酸化
and also slow down ocean acidification
以及降低对生物多样性的压力
as well as reduce pressure on biodiversity.
但是零污染还是不够
But zero emissions are not enough.
我们还必须减少已经使地球过热的碳
We must also draw down the carbon that’s already overheating the planet,
有个非常有效的方法可以做到这点
and there’s one very effective way to do this.
那就是多多种树
Plant more trees.
在全球范围内种植数十亿棵树
A global effort to plant billions of trees
可能是解决气候危机最具成本效益和可实现的
could be one of the most cost-effective and achievable solutions
解决方案之一
to the climate crisis.
而种更多的树 对于抵消我们继续排放的碳至关重要
And growing more trees is vital to offset the carbon we continue to emit
因为我们正努力以最快的速度实现零排放
as we strive to reach zero emissions as fast as we can.
当然 碳捕捉
Of course, capturing carbon
只是树木提供的好处之一
is only one of the benefits that trees provide.
谢赫姆博与约翰合作了很多年
Cheikh Mbow has collaborated with Johan for many years.
他是树木的拥护者
He’s an advocate for trees.
树木能防止水土流失
Trees prevent soil erosion.
没有树木 雨水就会减少
Without trees, there will be less rain.
如果我们在田地里种树
If we plant trees in the fields,
会增加田地的肥沃度 产量也会增加
the fertility of the fields and, therefore, production will increase.
我们想让树木回到
We want to bring the tree back to its place
持续发展的中心位置
at the center of sustainable development.
我们的工作是确保在所有树木能够生长的地方
Our job is to make sure that wherever a tree can grow,
都种上树
we plant one.
植树和恢复我们的自然世界
Planting trees and restoring our natural world
当然会对我们星球的生物多样性产生极大的好处
will, of course, have huge benefits for our planet’s biodiversity,
它也将有助于稳定我们的气候和淡水
but it will also help to stabilize our climate, our fresh water,
为我们的粮食生产和大自然
and have enormous benefits for our food production
免费提供的所有其他服务 提供巨大的好处
and all the other services that nature provides for free.
试想一下 自人类诞生以来
Just imagine, for the first time since the dawn of humanity,
我们第一次早上在一个拥有
we could wake up one morning
比我们睡觉时更多野生动物的星球上醒来
on a planet with more wildlife than there was when we went to sleep.
还有一个转变几乎简单得令人难以置信
There’s another transformation that is almost unbelievably simple,
但是它是维持在我们地球界限内的关键
but it’s key to staying within our planet’s boundaries.
你或我都可以采用
It can be adopted by you or me.
事实上 任何人都可以自♥由♥选择吃什么
In fact, by anyone with the freedom to choose what food they eat.
现在 令人振奋的是更加灵活的饮食习惯
Now, the exciting thing is the diet that is more flexitarian,
少吃红肉 多吃植物性蛋白
less red meat, more plant-based protein,
多吃水果和坚果 少吃淀粉类食物
more fruit and nuts, less starchy foods,
如果你采取这种饮食方式
if you take that diet
假设所有人都吃健康食物
and assume that all people would eat healthy food,
我们就可以回到安全的运作空间
we could actually come back within a safe operating space,
不仅仅体现在气候方面也在生物多样性方面
not only on climate, but also on biodiversity,
还在土地、水、营养物质和磷方面
on land, on water, on nitrogen and phosphorus.
相当令人激动的是 吃健康食物
Quite exciting that eating healthy food
可能是为拯救这个星球做出贡献唯一最重要的方式
might be the single most important way of contributing to save the planet.
还有一个至关重要的转变
There’s one more transformation that is vital.
它会把我们带回在我们所有的地球界限
It would bring us back towards the safe zone
范围内的安全区
within all our planet’s boundaries.
想象一个没有浪费
Imagine a world without waste,
没有任何东西可以丢弃的世界
with nothing to throw away.
我们的浪费是设计出来的
Our waste is created by design.
当我们制♥造♥产品时
When we make products,
我们很少建立回收原材料的手段
we rarely build in the means to recover the raw materials.
如果我们把线性系统变成循环系统
If we turn that linear system into a circular one,
设计能够回收
designing products so that the raw materials
原材料的产品
can all be recovered,
我们对资源的利用就可能是无限的
our use of resources could be infinite.
因此越来越多的证据显示
So more and more evidence shows that circular economies
如果我们有机会为世界上的所有公民
are fundamental if we are to stand a chance
提供良好的生活 循环经济是根本
of providing good lives for all citizens in the world.
消除浪费将使我们更接近气候
Eliminating waste would bring us closer to the safe zone for climate,
生物多样性、特别是营养物质 新实体和空气污染的安全区
biodiversity, and especially nutrients, novel entities, and air pollution.
地球界限给我们提供了一条清晰的前路
The planetary boundaries have given us a clear path ahead.
还有比如选择可再生能源
Simple things, like choosing renewable energy,
吃健康食物、植树造林
eating healthy food, planting trees,
拒绝浪费这些简单的事
saying no to waste.
这些加在一起可以改变我们在地球上的未来
Together, these could transform our future on Earth.
其中的神奇之处在于
And the magic in this is that these transformations
这些转变也将改善我们所有人现在的生活
would also improve all our lives right now.
即便你根本不在乎这个星球
Even if you don’t care at all about the planet
也不太关心世界上是否存在公平
and even if you don’t care too much about equity in the world,
而是带着私心 只关注自己和自己的家庭
but rather are selfish, just focusing on yourself
还有自己的生活
and your family and your own life,
我认为对于应对日常生活的人来说
which I think is a very respectful position to have
这是非常值得尊重的立场
as a human being struggling with everyday life,
你还是会想回到安全运行空间
still you would want to come back to a safe operating space.
每个人都会立即得益于拥有洁净的空气
Everyone would benefit immediately of having clean air,
给予更多健康和更长的预期寿命
giving more healthy and longer life expectancies.
你的孩子会更健康
Your children would be healthier.
回到地球界限
Coming back within planetary boundaries
也意味着你更有可能生活在
also means you are more likely to live in,
有稳定市场和稳定工作的社会里
in societies with, you know, stable markets and stable jobs,