打破边界：我们星球的科学（2021）

各式各样的树木对于维持这个星球的稳定性都是极其宝贵的
Trees of every description are invaluable in maintaining planetary stability.
以至于世界森林覆盖率只损失25%
So much so that a loss of just 25% of the world’s forest cover
就有可能触发灾难性的临界点
risks triggering catastrophic tipping points.
但是我们已经砍伐掉了近40％的森林
But we have already cleared almost 40%.
我们已经进入了这个界限的危险区域
We are well into the danger zone for this boundary.
砍伐森林的第二个主要后果是
A second major consequence of deforestation
丧失自然界的
is a loss of biodiversity.
生物多样性
Of nature.
生物多样性是生物圈的第二条界限
Biodiversity is the second of the biosphere boundaries,
因为它支撑着我们自己在地球上蓬勃发展的能力
because it underpins our own ability to thrive on Earth.
但是我们没有好好对待它
But we are not treating it well.
自然界正在以一定的速度和规模退化
Nature is being degraded at a rate and a scale
生物多样性和生态系统平台
安妮拉里格多丽博士
这在人类历史上是史无前例的
that is unprecedented, er, in human history.
安妮拉里格多丽是位生态学家 对日益增多的证据感到震惊
Anne Larigauderie is an ecologist alarmed by the growing flood of evidence.
在世界各地 自然界都在衰退
Everywhere around the world, nature is in decline.
全世界估计共有
One million of species of plants and animals
800万种动植物
out of an estimated total of eight million
有100万种濒临灭绝
are threatened with extinction.
如果我们继续保持这种负面趋势
If we continue with this negative trend,
我们可能会走向第六次大灭绝
we might be headed towards a sixth mass extinction.
在短短50年间
In just 50 years,
人类已经消灭了全球68%的野生动物种群
humanity has wiped out 68% of global wildlife populations.
显然 我们正处在生物多样性危机中
It’s clear that we are in the midst of a biodiversity crisis.
失去了所有的生命构造
Losing all of this fabric of life,
以及所有的生物多样性正威胁着我们自己在地球上的生命
all of this biodiversity, is threatening our own life on Earth.
由于目前生物多样性的消极趋势
With current negative trends in biodiversity,
我们将无法养活这个星球
we are not going to be able to feed the planet.
为此 我们需要正常运行的大自然
For that, you need nature that functions well.
对于约翰来说 这个近在眼前的故事
For Johan, it was a story close to home
真正触动了他
that really hit him.
我打开报纸 看到了一则新闻
I opened the newspaper and read this story about UK scientists coming over to Sweden
英国科学家来瑞典偷短毛熊蜂蜂后
and stealing, you know, short-haired bumblebee queens.
他们好像是晚上偷偷溜进来的
And it read like they had, you know, sneaked over at night
大概抓走了上百只熊蜂蜂后
and basically snatched these hundred bumblebee queens
把它们带回了英国
to bring them back into the UK
想要拯救被他们毁掉的环境
and to basically save what they had been destroying.
在整个欧洲 短毛熊峰
Across Europe, short-haired bumblebees
是粮食作物关键的传粉者
are key pollinators for food crops.
但到了20世纪90年代它们在英国被认定为已灭绝
But by the 1990s,they had been classed as extinct in the UK.
在这里 我们有一个国家被迫去另一个国家
Here, we have, you know, a country that feels forced to go to another country
偷回一些传粉昆虫
and then steal back some of its pollinators
希望能有个正常运作的生态系统
to have a functioning ecosystem.
这是一个… 对我个人来说
That’s a… Then, you know, to me personally,
那一刻我真正意识到了
that was a moment of, er, of realization that
问题的严重性
this is serious.
全世界约有70％的农作物种类
Around 70% of the world’s crop species
在某种程度上依赖昆虫授粉
rely to some extent on insect pollination.
但是集约化单一耕作的扩大
But the expansion of intensive monoculture is leading
导致了昆虫数量锐减
to a drastic decline in insects.
讽刺的是 我们的全球粮食生产
The irony is that our global production of food is,
从本质上来说
in essence,
是在消灭我们粮食生产所依赖的东西
wiping out the very thing our food production relies on.
这不仅证明了生物多样性研究的
It was not only proof of one of the fundamentals
一个基本原理那就是 我们需要保护生物多样性
in biodiversity research,which is that biodiversity is not something
不是因为我们人类这个物种
we need to protect just because of the beauty
需要基于另一个动、植物物种的美或者某种道德责任
or some kind of moral responsibility from one species, humans,
而保护它们
to another species like flora and fauna.
并不是这样 而是因为它们是我们社会运转的工具箱
Oh no, it’s the toolbox for the functioning of our societies.
这是解决谜题的基本要素
It is a fundamental piece of the puzzle
使食物生产、清洁空气、清洁水源
to make food production, clean air, clean water,
碳固存和营养物循环发挥作用
carbon sequestration, nutrient recycling, to work.
科学家们试图计算出 昆虫仅仅通过大量的
Scientists have tried to calculate the benefits that insects provide
日常活动 就能带来的好处
simply by going about their daily business in large numbers,
每种都提供了有细微差异的不同服务
each kind providing a subtly different service.
但是它们的价值大都不可估量直到突然之间…
But their value is mostly incalculable until suddenly…
它们都消失了
they’re gone.
没有昆虫的星球不是正常运行的星球
A planet without insects is not a functioning planet.
当然衰退不只局限在昆虫身上
And, of course, the decline is not just confined to insects.
随着农业遍及地球上大部分
Wildlife has been squeezed out
宜居土地 野生动物的生存空间被挤压得所剩无几
as our agriculture has expanded across much of Earth’s habitable land.
如今 地球上所有的鸟类中 只有30%是野生的
Today, of all the birds on Earth, only 30% are wild.
这个星球上所有的哺乳动物
And of all the mammals on the planet,
按重量来计 目前野生物种仅占4%
wild species now make up, by weight, only 4%.
生物多样性的界限在哪里？
So where is the boundary for biodiversity?
在我们自己的社会崩塌之前
How much more of the natural world can we afford to lose
我们还能承受多少自然界的损失？
before our own societies collapse?
自然界中 有很多不同的临界点
There are many different tipping points in the natural world,
因为生命非常复杂
and it’s difficult to translate concretely
当涉及到生物多样性时
the planetary boundary when it comes to biodiversity,
很难把地球界限具体化
because life is very complicated.
因为大自然的复杂性 大自然丧失的
A single boundary for the loss of nature
单一界限 可能很难界定
may be hard to pinpoint because of nature’s complexity,
但有一点是明确的
but one thing is clear.
我们已经越过了这个界限
We’ve already crossed well beyond it.
我们深陷在赤字之中
We are so deep in the red.
当地球上的物种消失
We are in such a dangerous point
地球上的生态系统遭到破坏我们面临着如此危险的时刻
when it comes to losing species on Earth and destroying ecosystems on Earth
我们必须尽快阻止
that we have to halt the loss of biodiversity
生物多样性的丧失
as quickly as we ever can.
现在要把它设为
Now is the time to set as a target
2021和2022年的目标
for 2021, 2022,
在这十年的早期
I mean really at the early parts of this decade,
我们必须把大自然零损失作为目标
that we must aim at a zero loss of nature.
相当于1,5摄氏度的最大允许升温幅度
The equivalent of 1.5 degrees Celsius maximum allowed warming
将从现在开始将为大自然零损失
would be zero loss of nature from now onwards.
第三条生物圈界限与行星的命脉有关
The third biosphere boundary relates to the planet’s bloodstream,
因为淡水是社会赖以生存的
for fresh water is another of the fundamentals
另一个基本要素
that society depends on.
你知不知道你和我
Did you know that you and I need roughly
每人每天大概需要3000升淡水 来维持生命吗？
something like 3,000 liters of fresh water per person every day for us to stay alive?
你会说：“天啊 3000升水？那就是3吨♥水？怎么可能？”
And you say, “My God, 3,000 liters? Three tons of water? How can that be?”
没错 我们只需要50升水用于个人卫生和饮用
Yes, we only need 50 liters for hygiene and drinking.
在富裕的世界里我们大概还需要100升
We, in the rich world, use roughly another hundred
用于洗涤和家庭需要
for washing, our household needs.
还需要150升用于工业这些大约是300升
And then industry needs another 150, so that’s like 300 liters.
但是剩下的2500多升用在了食物上
But the rest, the 2,500 or so, is for food.
当我们吃食物时我们需要淡水来生产
That’s the fresh water we need to produce everything that we have on our plates
盘子里的一切东西
when we eat our food.
淡水对约翰有特殊的意义
Fresh water has a special significance for Johan.
这是他攻读博士学位
It was the subject of his PhD
以及在非洲半干旱地区进行多年研究的课题
and many years of research in the semi-arid regions of Africa.
我从日出到日落 走来走去 汗流浃背
I spent from, you know, sunrise to sunset walking around, sweating like crazy,
收集数据
collecting data, you know.
挖掘土壤剖面
Digging profiles in the soil,
采集土壤样本 并进行土壤水分测量
taking soil samples, doing soil moisture measurements.
获取风速数据和降雨量数据
Just getting wind speed data and rainfall data.
我测量过很多叶片
I’ve measured so much leaf area.
面♥积♥你都无法想象
You don’t, you won’t imagine, you know,
科学家以平方毫米为单位测量一株植物上所有叶片的尺寸
how careful a scientist has to be in just measuring in square millimeters
会有多么小心
the size of all the leaves on a plant.
他需要这些细节来回答更大的问题
It was the details he needed to answer a much bigger question.
那就是我们需要多少水来养活这个世界？
How much water do we need to feed the world?
我在读理科硕士时的初步回答是
My tentative answer when I was doing my MSc was,
“没错 那里似乎有足够的水”
was that, “Yes, there seemed to be enough water.”
但是 凡事都有两面性
But there’s another side to the coin.
淡水的使用是否有整体阈值
Is there a global threshold for fresh water use
超过这个阈值系统就会开始崩塌？
beyond which the system starts to collapse?
我们扫描了世界上所有的流域
We actually scanned off all the river basins in the world
然后 定义了任何特定流域 为了维持
and then, you know, defining what’s the minimum amount of runoff water