打破边界：我们星球的科学（2021）

你可以想一下自己在山区开车的场景
You could think of yourself driving in a mountainous area
道路盘旋而上
with the road circling up the mountain.
超功率运行的发动机运转过快
An overpowered engine driving much, much too fast,
你行驶时没有开亮前灯
driving without any headlights.
而路旁就是有坠落风险的悬崖
Cliffs that you’re at risk of falling over.
你当然想打开前灯
You want, of course, to turn on the headlights,
这正是科学一直以来尝试做的事
and that is what science tries to do all the time.
科学为我们打开前灯让我们能够看到所面临的风险
To give us the headlights so we can see what risks we’re facing.
在对于我们星球运作方式的研究方面
Recent discoveries made by scientists
科学家的最新发现
studying the ways in which our planet works
对我们所有人来说 无疑是最重要的
are surely of the greatest importance for all of us.
他们的见解令人深感忧虑
Their insights are deeply troubling.
尽管如此 他们也给了我们希望
Nonetheless, they also give us hope,
因为他们向我们展现如何去解决问题
because they show us how we can fix things.
其中有一位毕生致力于
One of those who has devoted his life
研究这些全球重要问题的人
to studying these globally important problems
来自瑞典
comes from Sweden.
他是约翰罗克斯特罗姆
Johan Rockström.
他和他在世界各地的同事的发现
What he and his colleagues around the world have discovered
也许是我们这个时代最重要的科学见解
is perhaps the most important scientific insight of our times.
约翰给了我们希望
Johan has given us hope.
希望能有办法摆脱这场危机
Hope that there is a way out of this crisis.
而且一旦你也听到了
And once you too have heard it,
你可能永远不会再以同样的方式看待世界
you may never look at the world in the same way again.
这与地球无关
This is not about the planet.
这与我们有关 这关乎我们的未来
This is about us. It is about our future.
我们还有机会
We still have a chance.
为了人类的未来这扇窗还在为我们敞开着
The window is still open for us to have a future for humanity.
我想这就是我们如今的魅力所在
That I think is the beauty of where we are today.
我们对我们星球运作方式的理解
Our understanding of how our planet works
总是在进步
is always advancing.
我们现在可以比以往更清晰地看到
We can now see more clearly than ever
生命的错综复杂 对我们的生存至关重要
how life’s intricate complexity is essential for our own survival.
但是生物多样性正在崩塌我们的气候也在发生变化
But biodiversity is collapsing, and our climate is changing.
约翰罗克斯特罗姆专注于找出保持这个星球稳定的原因
Johan Rockström has focused on what keeps our planet stable.
感谢科技进步 我们是第一代人
We’re the first generation, thanks to science,
被告知我们可能
to be informed that we may be undermining
为了支持我们所知的人类发展
the stability and the ability of planet Earth
正在破坏地球的稳定与能力
to support human development as we know it.
这来自于冰芯数据
This comes from ice core data,
我认为这是我们今天最重要的图表
and I think that this is the most important graph we have today.
这张图表是个启示
The graph is a revelation.
它显示了自现代人类出现以来
It shows global temperature variability
过去10万年来的
over the past 100,000 years
全球气温变化情况
since the first appearance of modern humans.
十年来气温在正负10摄氏度之间跳跃
We were jumping between plus-minus ten degrees Celsius in a decade.
简单来说 我们过得很艰难
We had, to put it simple, a rough time.
最关键的是 温度在一万年前
What’s critical is that the temperature stabilized
就稳定下来了
just 10,000 years ago.
（时期 几千年前）
从图中可以看出 这非同寻常
You can just see from the graph that this is a remarkable,
更不用说间冰期几乎稳定得如奇迹一般
not to say almost miraculously stable, interglacial period.
地质学家给这段稳定期
Geologists have given this period of stability
起了一个特殊的名字
its own special name.
这就是所谓的全新世
It’s called the Holocene.
全新世简直就是奇迹
The Holocene is remarkable.
这是个暖期 在整个期间
It is a warm period where the planet’s global mean temperature
地球的全球平均温度
varies between just plus-minus one degree Celsius
仅在正负1摄氏度之间变化
during the entire period.
正负1
Plus-minus one.
…是正负1摄氏度
…is plus-minus one degree Celsius.
这就是建立我们所知的现代世界的基础
This is what established the modern world as we know it.
全新世稳定的温度给了我们一个稳定的星球
The Holocene’s stable temperatures gave us a stable planet.
海平面稳定了下来
Sea levels stabilized.
我们第一次
For the first time,
有了可以预测的季节和可靠的天气
we had predictable seasons and reliable weather.
这种稳定性是根本
This stability was fundamental.
第一次 文明成为了可能
For the first time, civilization was possible,
人类没有浪费任何时间对其进行了充分利用
and humanity wasted no time in taking advantage.
我们在不同的大♥陆♥
We domesticated rice, wheat,
几乎同时栽培了大米、小麦
teff, maize, sorghum,
苔麸、玉米和高梁
on different continents roughly at the same time.
然后我们踏上了我们所知的文明之旅
And off we go on the civilizational journey as we know it.
这是间冰期
This is the interglacial stage that has enabled us
使我们能够发展我们所知的现代文明
to develop modern civilizations as we know it.
全新世是我们唯一可以确定的地球状态
The Holocene is the only state of the planet we know for certain
它可以支持我们所知的现代世界
can support the modern world as we know it.
自文明诞生以来
Since the dawn of civilization,
我们一直依赖于地球的这种稳定状态
we have depended on this stable state of the planet.
这个星球有两个永久性的冰盖
A planet with two permanent ice caps,
有流动的河流
flowing rivers,
有遮蔽的森林
a cloak of forests,
有可靠的天气
reliable weather,
还有众多生物
and an abundance of life.
在整个全新世
Throughout the Holocene,
这个稳定的星球为我们提供了可以吃的食物
this stable planet has given us food to eat,
可以饮用的水和可以呼吸的清新空气
water to drink, and clean air to breathe.
但是我们却把全新世抛在了身后
But we have just left the Holocene behind.
人类对地球呈指数级增长的压力
The exponential rise in human pressures on planet Earth
现在已经到了一个阶段
has now reached a stage
我们现在已经创造了自己的地质纪♥元♥
where we have now created our own geological epoch.
科学家近日宣布 全新世已经结束
Scientists recently declared that the Holocene has ended
我们现在正处于人类世
and that we are now in the Anthropocene,
这是人类的时代
the age of humans,
因为我们现在是地球上变化的
because we now are the primary drivers of change
主要驱动力
on planet Earth.
我们改造了世界上一半的宜居土地
We have converted half the world’s habitable land
种植农作物 并饲养家畜
to grow crops and rear livestock.
我们移♥动♥的沉积物和岩石比地球上全部自然过程都要多
We move more sediment and rock than all the Earth’s natural processes.
半数以上的海洋都在活跃捕捞
More than half of the ocean is actively fished.
我们每十个人中有九个呼吸着不健康的空气
Nine out of ten of us breathe unhealthy air.
而且 在一生中
And, in a single lifetime,
我们让地球升温了不止1度
we have warmed the Earth by more than one degree.
我要说的是也许对人类来说 最可怕的信息
I would say that perhaps the most dire message to humanity
是以下几点
is the following.
在短短的50年里
So we have, in just 50 years,
我们就设法把自己
managed to push ourselves
从过去保持了一万年的状态中 推了出去
outside of a state that we’ve been in for the past 10,000 years.
我们是否有破坏整个星球稳定的风险？
Are we at risk of destabilizing the whole planet?
这种情况实在是令人匪夷所思
It’s just a mind-boggling situation to be in.
这是我们第一次不得不认真考虑
For the first time, we have to seriously consider
破坏整个星球稳定的风险
the risk of destabilizing the entire planet.
波茨坦气候影响研究所
约翰的抱负一直是看到全局
Johan’s ambition has been to see the big picture.
利用全球知识网络
To draw from a global network of knowledge,
了解是什么让整个星球保持稳定
to learn what keeps the entire planet stable.
有哪些系统决定了这个星球的状态？
What are the systems that determine the state of the planet?
如果有5个系统或者如果曾有30个系统
And if they are five or if they were 30,
我们就不会知道什么时候开始
we did not know when we started.
我们只是开放性地提出了问题
We just open-ended asked the question,
“我们能确定调节这个星球状态的系统吗？”
“Can we identify the systems that regulate the state of the planet?”
那些系统在整个全新世 一直把这个星球保持在
Those systems have held the planet in its stable state
稳定状态
throughout the Holocene.
随着我们对地球压力的增加
As we increase our pressures on Earth,
这些系统会有开始崩塌的危险
there is a danger that those systems will start to break down.
我们会突破地球的界限
That we will break through Earth’s boundaries,
导致我们赖以生存的稳定局面崩塌
causing the stability that we depend on to collapse.
我绝对相信 我们想要
I was absolutely convinced that we wanted
深入探索定义地球界限的挑战
to dig into this challenge of defining planetary boundaries,
我们能否确定一个数量点
and can we identify a quantitative point
超过这个范围我们就有可能触发非线性变化
beyond which we risk triggering nonlinear changes?