难以忽视的真相（2006）

There were two rivers in Central Asia
曾经被苏联盲目地
that were used by the former Soviet Union
用来灌溉棉花田
for irrigating cotton fields unwisely.
咸海就是由它们汇成
The Aral Sea was fed by them.
它曾经是世界上第4大内陆海
It used to be the fourth largest inland sea in the world.
但我到那里时 看到了这幅奇怪的景象
When I went there, I saw this strange sight
一艘巨大的渔船停在沙漠里
of an enormous fishing fleet resting in the sand.
这是绝望的捕鱼业 面对消失的海岸线
This is the canal that the fishing industry desperately tried to build
开挖的沟渠
to get to the receding shoreline.
同自然打交道 稍有不慎
Making mistakes in our dealings with nature can have
就会酿成恶果
bigger consequences now
新技术规模上往往超出普通人
because our technologies are often bigger than the human scale.
把它们结合到一起 就能赋予我们强大的力量
When you put them all together, they’ve made us a force of nature.
这同样是一个政♥治♥问题
And this is also a political issue.
这是电脑绘制的世界地图
This is a computer map of the world
按照对全球变暖 影响力的比例绘制
that distorts to show the relative contributions to global warming.
我们国家的影响 等于整个南美洲
In our country, we are responsible for more than all of South America,
加上非洲 中东
all of Africa, all of the Middle East,
以及亚洲的总合
all of Asia, all combined.
这是非洲 印度 中国 日本 欧盟 俄♥罗♥斯♥
The per capita average in
的人均二氧化碳排放
Africa, India, China, Japan, EU, Russia.
还有我们的 远远超过其余几个
There’s where we are. Way, way above everyone else.
要是乘上人口 情况稍有不同
If you take population into account, it’s a little bit different.
中国和欧盟都有所增加
China’s playing a bigger role, so is Europe.
但我们仍然是最大的”贡献者”
But we are still by all odds the largest contributor.
现在轮到我们来检视自己的看法了
And so it is up to us to look at how we think about it,
因为这是第三个 也是最后一个
because our way of thinking is the third and final factor
改变人与自然关系的要素
that transforms our relationship to the Earth.
一只青蛙跳进沸水里
If a frog jumps into a pot of boiling water,
会马上跳出来 因为它能感觉到危险
it jumps right out again because it senses the danger.
但同一只青蛙
But the very same frog,
跳进冷水里
if it jumps into a pot of lukewarm water
然后慢慢加热到沸腾
that is slowly brought to a boil,
它只会一动不动地呆在那里
will just sit there and it won’t move.
就算温度不断升高 也不知道离开
It’ll just sit there, even as the temperature continues to go up and up.
就一直这样 直到… 直到被救出去
It’ll stay there, until… Until it’s rescued.
这只青蛙是得救起来
It’s important to rescue the frog.
但转念一想呢
But the point is this.
我们大众意识和那只青蛙一样
Our collective nervous system is like that frog’s nervous system.
对于突发危险有应急行为
It takes a sudden jolt sometimes before we become aware of a danger.
但若其逐渐变化 尽管速度飞快
If it seems gradual, even if it really is happening quickly,
我们也会坐视不管
we’re capable of just sitting there and not responding.
无动于衷
And not reacting.
在我童年的记忆里
I don’t remember a time when I was a kid
没有哪个夏天 不是在忙碌的种植烟草中度过
when summertime didn’t mean working with tobacco.
我…一度很喜欢这一切
It was just… I used to love it. It was during that period
同农场里的人们一起劳作
when working with the guys on the farm
十分开心
seemed like fun to me.
196♥4♥年卫♥生♥部♥公布报告
Starting in 196♥4♥, with the Surgeon General’s report,
吸烟与肺癌
the evidence was laid out on the connection
被证实存在必然联♥系♥
between smoking cigarettes and lung cancer.
我们仍继续种植烟草
We kept growing tobacco.
南茜比我大10岁
Nancy was almost 10 years older than me,
我们俩总是在一起
and there were only the two of us.
她是我的保护神
She was my protector
也是我的好朋友
and my friend at the same time.
她从青年时开始吸烟
She started smoking when she was a teenager
从未间断
and never stopped.
最后死于肺癌
She died of lung cancer.
你绝不想那样死去
That’s one of the ways you don’t want to die.
一想到自己
The idea that we had been
作为这个经济现象的一分子
part of that economic pattern
生产香烟
that produced the cigarettes,
也”生产”了癌症
that produced the cancer,
简直…
it was so…
感到无比的痛苦
It was so painful on so many levels.
我那种了一辈子的烟草的父亲 从此没有再种
My father, he had grown tobacco all his life. He stopped.
过去任何变故
Whatever explanation
都没有能阻止他
had seemed to make sense in the past, just didn’t cut it anymore.
这次却毅然收手
He stopped it.
顺藤摸瓜是人类天性 的确如此
It’s just human nature to take time to connect the dots. I know that.
我知道总有一天 当人们期望更快地知道结果
But I also know that there can be a day of reckoning
就会回头重新审视整个过程
when you wish you had connected the dots more quickly.
有三大误区迷惑了大众
There are three misconceptions in particular that bedevil our thinking.
第一 科学界对于这个问题
First, isn’t there a disagreement among scientists
是否还存在分歧?
about whether the problem is real or not?
事实上 没有
Actually, not really.
曾有一项科学论文大型调查
There was a massive study of every scientific article
对象是过去10年里所有关于全球变暖的专家评审文章
in a peer-reviewed journal written on global warming for the last 10 years.
做了10%的海量采样 共有928篇
And they took a big sample of 10%, 928 articles.
知不知道这里面
And you know the number of those
反对这一全球共识
that disagreed with the scientific consensus
是人类引起全球变暖
that we’re causing global warming
或认为该问题无足轻重的有多少篇?
and that it’s a serious problem?
所有的928篇里面 一篇也没有
Out of the 928, zero.
关于科学界存在分歧的谬论
The misconception that there’s disagreement about the science
其实是一小撮人故意捏造的
has been deliberately created by a relatively small group of people.
有一份他们的内部文件泄露出来
One of their internal memos leaked.
报纸上是这样写的
And here’s what it said, according to the press.
他们的目的就是”将全球变暖”
Their objective is to reposition global warming
“重新定义为理论而不是事实”
as theory rather than fact.
医生都爱抽”骆驼牌”香烟
这是陈年旧事了
This has happened before.
就在卫♥生♥部♥的报告公布以后
After the Surgeon General’s report.
40年前的一份文件泄露出来 这是他们的话
One of their memos leaked 40 years ago. Here’s what they said.
“公众的顾虑就是销量的保证”
“Doubt is our product,
“这是迷惑大众最有力的切入点”
“since it is the best means of creating a controversy in the public’s mind.”
他们成功了吗?
But have they succeeded?
各位还记得那928篇专家评审的论文
You’ll remember that there were 928 peer-reviewed articles.
没有一篇反对这一共识
Zero percent disagreed with the consensus.
这里是另一个面向大众读物的调查
There was another study of all the articles in the popular press.
在过去14年里 抽样调查了636篇
Over the last 14 years, they looked at a sample of 636.
一半以上的文章写
More than half of them said,
“这个问题嘛 我不清楚 可能是也可能不是”
“Well, we’re not sure. It could be a problem, may not be a problem.”
怪不得我们会如此迷惑
So no wonder people are confused.
发现什么了?
What did you find out?
给谁工作?
Working for who?
主管?
Chief of Staff?
我要…
I’m gonna…
那是白宫环境办公室
That’s the White House environment office.
美国石油协会 可以说那就是个游说团
American Petroleum Institute. It’s fair to say that’s the oil and gas lobby.
可以这样说吗?
Is that fair?
完全可以
Totally fair.
作进一步调查 看看他们的客户是谁
Do a little bit more and see who his clients were.
这么说他是在为埃克森·瓦尔迪兹的船难辨护
So he was defending the Exxon Valdez thing.
很好 谢谢你
Uh, very. Thank you.
科学家有一个不容侵犯的职责
Scientists have an independent obligation
就是尊重他发现的真♥相♥ 并公之于众
to respect and present the truth as they see it.
为什么你关于这个问题的陈述
Why do you directly contradict yourself
会自相矛盾?
in the testimony you’re giving about this scientific question?
文章最后一段不是我写的
The last paragraph in that section was not a paragraph which I wrote.
是别人加上去的
That was added to my testimony.
要是他们强迫你更改科学结论
If they force you to change a scientific conclusion,
那就是他们进行学术造假
it’s a form of science fraud by them.
前苏联强迫科学家
You know, in the Soviet Union, ordering scientists
篡改研究成功以取悦其政♥权♥
to change their studies to conform with the ideology…
我看到科学家们
I’ve seen scientists
气象专家称美国国家航♥空♥航♥天♥局欲封其口
遭到迫♥害♥
who were persecuted,
受人奚落
ridiculed,
丢了饭碗 失去经济来源
deprived of jobs, income,
仅仅因为他们发现的