难以忽视的真相（2006）

过去也有冰川蜗穴形成 但与现在的情形截然不同
and moulins have formed in the past, but not like now.
这是1992年人们测量的 格陵兰融冰的数量
In 1992, they measured this amount of melting in Greenland.
这里是10年以后的景象
Ten years later, this is what happened.
到了2005年则变成这样
And here is the melting from 2005.
托尼·布莱尔的科学顾问说过
Tony Blair’s scientific advisor has said that
以格陵兰目前的状况
because of what’s happening in Greenland right now,
我们不得不重绘世界地图
the maps of the world will have to be redrawn.
如果格陵兰融化瓦解
If Greenland broke up and melted,
或者格陵兰和南极洲西部
or if half of Greenland and half of West Antarctica
各融化一半
broke up and melted,
佛罗里达将会是这样的场景
this is what would happen to the sea level in Florida.
这是旧金山湾
This is what would happen to San Francisco Bay.
这些地方都有大量人口
A lot of people live in these areas.
低地国家荷兰
The Netherlands, one of the low countries.
完全是毁灭性的灾难
Absolutely devastating.
北♥京♥周边地区 上千万人口受灾
The area around Beijing that’s home to tens of millions of people.
上海这边更糟
Even worse, in the area around Shanghai,
有4千万人口
there are 40 million people.
这边也不容乐观 从加尔各答到东部的孟买♥♥
Worse still, Calcutta, and to the east, Bangladesh,
将殃及6千万人口
the area covered includes 60 million people.
想象一下成百上千的难民
Think of the impact of a couple hundred thousand refugees
因为环境变迁而流离失所
when they’re displaced by an environmental event.
再想象若变成上亿人 会有怎样的影响
And then imagine the impact of a hundred million or more.
曼哈顿
Here’s Manattan.
这是世贸中心纪念碑
This is the World Trade Center memorial site.
9.11的以后
And after the horrible events of 9/11,
人们说”愿悲剧不再重演”
we said, “Never again.”
但结果呢
But this is what would happen to Manattan.
科学家可以算出精确的数字
They can measure this precisely,
就像他们准确地预测了
just as the scientists could predict precisely
多大的洪水会冲垮新奥尔良的堤坝
how much water would breach the levees in New Orleans.
世贸中心纪念碑坐落的地方
The area where the World Trade Center Memorial is to be located
将被水淹没
would be underwater.
除了恐♥怖♥主♥义♥
Is it possible that we should prepare
我们是不是该应对其他的威胁?
against other threats besides terrorists?
也许还有别的问题需要加以关注
Maybe we should be concerned about other problems as well.
13亿人口
1.3 billion people.
飞速增长的经济
An economy that’s surging.
越来越大的能源需求
More and more energy needs.
丰富的煤炭储量
Massive coal reserves.
中国北部的煤矿带
The coal belt in Northern China,
-内蒙古 -嗯
-Inner Mongolia. -Right.
还有陕西省
Then there’s Shaanxi province.
-这里也有大型煤矿 -就在这里
-And also biggest coal mine here. -Up here.
-是的 -露天煤矿?
-Yeah. -Now, is that an open pit mine?
是的…
-Yes. -Yes.
我每次去中国
Every time I’ve visited China,
接触到那些科学家 都感觉中国也面临严峻考验
I’ve learned from their scientists. They’re right on the cutting edge.
能不能给我个概念
Give me some sense of the numbers of
目前新建的火力发电站有多少
new coal fire generating plants.
数字十分惊人
Well, I have to say that the number is enormous
因为有巨大的利益驱动
because it’s so profitable.
中国的问题同美国一样
This issue is really the same for China as it is for the US.
我们都使用陈旧 易污染的旧技术
We are both using old technologies that are dirty and polluting.
…越来越多的洪涝和干旱
…more flooding and more drought
还有越来越强的风暴
and stronger storms is going up,
这一切都暗示着全球变暖
and global warming is implicated in the pattern.
要是请您给在座各位
And if you were to give some suggestions to everybody here
就目前的状况提出建议…
about, like, what we can do for the situation now.
分清♥真♥理和谬论
Separating the truth from the fiction
你们今天所学到的知识
and the accurate connections from the misunderstandings
就能帮助你分辨真伪
is part of what you learn here.
但当那些确凿的 有严密科学依据的忠告到来
But when the warnings are accurate and based on sound science,
那么作为人类 不分国籍
then we as human beings, whatever country we live in,
必须接受这样的忠告
have to find a way to make sure
然后作出应有的回应
that the warnings are heard and responded to.
我们为了废除”陋习”
We both have a hard time shaking loose the familiar patterns
都作出了艰苦的努力
that we’ve relied on in the past.
却面对着难以接受的结果
We both face completely unacceptable consequences.
有三大因素促成了这一冲突
And there are three factors that are causing this collision,
第一是人口
and the first is population.
我这代生于二战之后的”婴儿潮”
When my generation, the baby boom generation, was born after World War II,
当时世界人口刚刚越过20亿
the population had just crossed the two billion mark.
现在我50多岁
Now, I’m in my 50s,
世界人口已经达到65亿
and it’s already gone to almost six and a half billion.
我要是能活到”婴儿潮” 这代人的平均寿命
And if I reach the demographic expectation for the baby boomers,
这个数字会变成90亿
it’ll go over nine billion.
人口增长用了1♥0♥0♥0♥0♥代才达到20亿
So if it takes 10,000 generations to reach two billion
而在我们这一代
and then in one human lifetime, ours,
就从20亿飙升到90亿
it goes from two billion to nine billion,
同时引起了翻天覆地的变化
something profoundly different’s going on right now.
地球的压力越来越大
We’re putting more pressure on the Earth.
而且集中在那些贫困国家
Most of it’s in the poorer nations of the world.
食品紧张
This puts pressure on food demand.
淡水紧张
It puts pressure on water demand.
脆弱的自然资源也受到威胁
It puts pressure on vulnerable natural resources,
这也是为什么
and this pressure’s one of the reasons
各地的植被遭受严重破坏
why we have seen all the devastation of the forest,
不仅仅在雨林 各地都是
not only tropical, but elsewhere.
这是一个政♥治♥问题
It is a political issue.
海地和多米尼加之间的国界线
This is the border between Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
左边一个政♥权♥ 右边另一个政♥权♥
One set of policies here, another set of policies here.
破坏植被的不仅仅是砍伐 还有焚烧
Much of it comes not only because of cutting, but also burning.
每年30%的二氧化碳排放
Almost 30% of all the CO2 that goes up each year into the atmosphere
来自焚烧森林
comes from forest burning.
这是在6个月里 地球的夜间动态延时照片
This is a time-lapse picture of the Earth at night over a six-month period
城市的灯光是白色
showing the lights of the cities in white
红色则代表森林大火
and the burning forests and brush fires in red.
黄色代表煤气燃烧的火焰 像这里的西伯利亚
The yellow areas are the gas flares, like these in Siberia.
这样就引出了
And that brings me to the second factor
改变人与自然关系的第二大因素
that has transformed our relationship to the Earth.
科学和技术革命造福了全人类
The scientific and technological revolution is a great blessing
在诸如交通和医疗方面
in that it has given us tremendous benefits
给我们带来了诸多便利
in areas like medicine and communications.
但也赋予我们责任
But this new power that we have also brings a responsibility
去考虑可能造成的后果
to think about its consequences.
这里有个公式
Here’s a formula to think about.
旧习惯结合旧技术 其结果可以预见
Old habits plus old technology have predictable consequences.
难以改变的旧习惯加上新技术
Old habits that are hard to change plus new technology
却会得到截然相反的结果
can have dramatically altered consequences.
刀光剑影的战争
Warfare with spears and bows and arrows
或者机♥枪♥火炮 这是一回事
and rifles and machine guns, that’s one thing.
但当新技术出现
But then a new technology came.
我们则必须用新的眼光来看待战争
We have to think differently about war
因为新技术已经完全颠覆了
because the new technologies so completely transformed
过去战争的概念
the consequences of that old habit
因此我们不能 盲目地走过去的老路
that we can’t just mindlessly continue the patterns of the past.
同样地 我们耕作以获取食物
In the same way, we have always exploited the Earth for sustenance.
大部分人类历史 我们都使用相对简单的工具
For most of our existence, we used relatively simple tools.
犁 拖拉机
The plow, the tractor.
但就是铲子 今天也大不同于过去
But even tools like shovels are different now.
这是以前的铲子
Shovel used to be this.
现在却要大得多
Shovels have gotten bigger.
每一年 它都越来越强大
And every year, they get more powerful.
所以在这个问题上 人类对地球表面的影响
So our ability to have an effect, in this case on the surface of the Earth,
已经大不同于昨天
is utterly transformed.
你会认为对于灌溉来说 进步是件好事
You can say the same thing about irrigation, which is a great thing.
科罗拉多河
但要是我们不计后果地从河里抽水
But when we divert rivers without considering the consequences,
河流也许再也没法流入大海
then sometimes rivers no longer reach the sea.
中亚有两条河