难以忽视的真相（2006）

它这样升上冰面
that surfaced through the ice like this.
他们从1957年开始航行
Since they started patrolling in 1957,
深入冰下
they have gone under the ice
用雷达向上探测
and measured with their radar looking upwards
来测量冰层厚度
to measure how thick it is
他们只能在某些区域上浮
because they can only surface in areas
这些地区冰层只有3尺半厚
where it’s three and a half feet thick or less.
所以做记录需要特别小心
So they have kept a meticulous record
由于这是国♥家♥机♥密♥ 他们不愿公布测量结果
and they wouldn’t release it because it was national security.
我前去说服了他们
I went up there in order to persuade them to release it, and they did.
而这就是那份记录
And here’s what that record shows.
1970年开始 冰层的宽度和厚度
Starting in 1970, there was a precipitous drop-off
出现急剧下降
in the amount and extent and thickness of the Arctic ice cap.
40年内减少了40%
It has diminished by 40% in 40 years.
目前的两项主要研究表明
And there are now two major studies showing
未来50到70年内
that within the next 50 to 70 years,
这里夏季将不再结冰
in summertime it will be completely gone.
你可能会问 “这样有什么不好?”
Now, you might say, “Why is that a problem?”
或者 “为什么北极冰层融化这么快?”
And “How could the Arctic ice cap actually melt so quickly?”
阳光照到冰面
When the surs rays hit the ice,
90%以上会反射回太空
more than 90% of it bounces off right back into space like a mirror.
但若是直射到水里 90%以上被海洋吸收
But when it hits the open ocean, more than 90% of it is absorbed.
于是周围的水域越来越热
And so, as the surrounding water gets warmer,
加速了冰层的融化
it speeds up the melting of the ice.
现在北极的冰层就像一面大镜子
Right now, the Arctic ice cap acts like a giant mirror.
90%以上的阳光被反射回去
All the surs rays bounce off, more than 90%.
保持地球的凉爽
It keeps the Earth cooler.
但等它融化了
But as it melts
广阔的海洋接受太阳的能量
and the open ocean receives that surs energy instead,
90%的阳光被吸收
more than 90% is absorbed.
就会在这里聚集热量
So there is a faster buildup of heat here,
从北极 到北冰洋
at the North Pole, in the Arctic Ocean,
然后到北极圈乃至整个地球
and the Arctic generally than anywhere else on the planet.
对于北极熊这样 依赖冰雪的动物可不是好事
That’s not good for creatures like polar bears who depend on the ice.
最新科学研究表明
A new scientific study shows that
人们首次发现了淹死的北极熊
for the first time they’re finding polar bears that have actually drowned,
它们漂游超过60英里以寻找冰面
swimming long distances, up to 60 miles, to find the ice.
这是过去从未有过的景象
And they didn’t find that before.
这又代表着什么?
But what does it mean to us?
过去的广阔冰层
To look at a vast expanse of open water
如今变成一片汪♥洋♥大海
at the top of our world that used to be covered by ice.
我们应该予以关注
We ought to care a lot
因为这会造成全球影响
because it has planetary effects.
地球上的气候 就是大型的热能分配器
The Earth’s climate is like a big engine for redistributing heat
分配赤道到两极的热量
from the equator to the poles.
其原理就是海水和风的流动
And it does that by means of ocean currents and wind currents.
科学家说
They tell us, the scientists do,
地球的气候是一个非线性系统
that the Earth’s climate is a nonlinear system.
这个冠冕堂皇的说法
Just a fancy way they have of saying
不过是说气候不是逐渐变化的
that the changes are not all just gradual.
有的会有突变
Some of them come suddenly, in big jumps.
从全球范围来看
On a worldwide basis, the annual average temperature is
年均气温是58度
about 58 degrees Fahreneit.
要是按照图中所示
If we have an increase of five degrees,
平均增加5度
which is on the low end of the projections,
看看地球上会有什么变化
look at how that translates globally.
这代表着赤道上升1度
That means an increase of only one degree at the equator,
而在两极会上升12度
but more than 12 degrees at the pole.
各种水流和气流
And so all those wind and ocean current patterns
自上个冰河时代形成以来都相对稳定
that have formed since the last ice age and have been relatively stable,
如今却变得不稳定起来
they’re all up in the air and they change.
其中有一个最让人担心
And one of the ones they’re most worried about,
人们花了大量时间去研究它
where they’ve spent a lot of time studying the problem,
那就是北大西洋
is in the North Atlantic
在那里湾流遭遇冷空气
where the Gulf Stream comes up and meets the cold winds
冷空气从北极越过格陵兰来到这里
coming off the Arctic over Greenland.
湾流释放的热空气
And that evaporates so that the heat out of the Gulf Stream
由于地球的自转和盛行风向的作用
and the steam is carried over to Western Europe
水蒸气被吹向欧洲西部
by the prevailing winds and the Earth’s rotation.
看到整个大洋环流组成一个圈
But isn’t it interesting that the whole ocean current system
是不是很有趣?
is all linked together in this loop?
它被称为”海洋运输带”
They call it the ocean conveyor.
红色代表暖流
And the red are the warm surface currents.
其中以湾流最著名
The Gulf Stream is the best known of them.
蓝色代表寒流
But the blue represent the cold currents
反方向运动
running in the opposite direction,
我们看不见是因为 整个过程都在海底进行
and we don’t see them at all because they run along the bottom of the ocean.
在大西洋北部 热量被带走以后
Up in the North Atlantic, after that heat is pulled out,
剩下的就是又冷又咸的海水
what’s left behind is colder water and saltier water
因为盐不会随着蒸发
because the salt doesn’t go anywhere.
这样就使得海水变得又稠又重
And so that makes it denser and heavier.
这样一来 冷却 稠密的海水
And so that cold, dense, heavy water sinks
以每秒500万加仑的速度下沉
at the rate of five billion gallons per second.
将海水送回南边
And then that pulls that current back south.
在上个冰河时代末期
At the end of the last ice age,
最后一块冰川从北美洲撤出
as the last glacier was receding from North America,
冰融化以后在那里 形成了一个巨大的淡水湖
the ice melted and a giant pool of fresh water formed in North America.
北美五大湖就是那个湖的遗迹
And the Great Lakes are the remnants of that huge lake.
有一天 西岸由冰组成的”大坝”决堤了
An ice dam on the eastern border formed and one day it broke.
淡水倾泻而出
And all that fresh water came rushing out,
冲出圣劳伦斯河
ripping open the St. Lawrence there,
冲淡了那里又咸又稠的冰冷海水
and it diluted the salty, dense, cold water,
海水变淡变轻 于是停止下沉
made it fresher and lighter, so it stopped sinking.
循环就此停滞
And that pump shut off.
热量交换终止
And the heat transfer stopped.
欧洲又进入900到1000年的冰河时代
And Europe went back into an ice age for another 900 to 1,000 years.
从我们现在的状态
And the change from conditions like we have here today
转化到冰河时代
to an ice age
仅仅需要10年的时间
took place in perhaps as little as 10 years’ time.
这就是一个突变
So that’s a sudden jump.
这样的情形现在当然不会发生
Now, of course that’s not gonna happen again
北美洲没有这样的冰川
because the glaciers of North America are not there, and…
那附近有没有大♥片♥的冰层呢?
Is there any other big chunk of ice anywhere near there?
有的
Oh, yeah.
我们等会儿来说它
We’ll come back to that one.
我奔走呼吁 各方交涉
It’s extremely frustrating to me
却感到无比的沮丧
to communicate over and over again, as clearly as I can.
我们国家就是这一危机 的罪魁祸首
And we are still, by far, the worst contributor to the problem.
我环顾四周
And I look around
想看到明显的标志
and look for really meaningful signs
表示我们在寻求改变
that we’re about to really change.
却什么也看不到
I don’t see it right now.
一些知名科学家称
A number of very reputable scientists have said that
空气污染
one factor of air pollution
来自腐烂的植物散发的氮氧化合物
is oxides of nitrogen from decaying vegetation.
这也就是大烟山闻名的大雾的由来
This is what causes the haze that gave the big Smoky Mountains their name.
非常感谢
Thank you very much, okay.
这个人是极端的环境主义者
This guy is so far off in the environmental extreme,
会造成人心惶惶 大量失业
we’ll be up to our neck in owls and out of work for every American.
他是个疯子
This guy is crazy.
就算人类是在造成全球变暖 尽管我们没有
Even if humans were causing global warming, and we are not,
这也是对美国的公民
this could be maybe the greatest hoax ever perpetrated
一次最大的欺骗
on the American people.
这完全是意气用事
We’re dealing with something that’s highly emotional.
如果一个问题
If an issue is not
没能得到当权者的重视
on the tips of their constituents’ tongues,
他们很容易就可以忽视它
it’s easy for them to ignore it.
推辞说”容我们日后商议”
To say, “Well, we’ll deal with that tomorrow.”
这种种变化
So the same phenomena of changing all these patterns
也影响着季节变迁
is also affecting the seasons.