难以忽视的真相（2006）

接下来的半个世纪里 这40%的人口
And within this next half century those 40% of the people on Earth
将面对严重的水源匮乏
are gonna face a very serious shortage
原因就是冰川减少
because of this melting.
在意大利 阿尔卑斯山脉
Italy, the Italian Alps.
这是今日的景象
Same sight today.
瑞士Tshierva冰川
一张瑞士过去的明信片
An old postcard from Switzerland.
瑞士Rhone冰川
整个阿尔卑斯山脉 都是一样的景象
Throughout the Alps, we’re seeing the same story.
南美也是一样的场景
It’s also true in South America.
这是15年前的秘鲁
This is Peru 15 years ago.
这是今日的模样
And the same glacier today.
20年前的阿根廷 和今日的景象
This is Argentina 20 years ago. Same glacier today.
75年前 南美底端的 巴塔哥尼亚高原
Seventy-five years ago in Patagonia on the tip of South America.
曾经一望无际的冰雪 如今荡然无存
This vast expanse of ice is now gone.
种种的现象 包含了一个重要的信息
There’s a message in this.
这是全球性的
It is worldwide.
是冰川在向我们倾诉
And the ice has stories to tell us.
我的朋友朗尼·汤普森用空心钻研究冰层
My friend, Lonnie Thompson, digs core drills in the ice.
他们往下钻
They dig down
然后将钻头采到的冰芯
and they bring the core drills back up
拿去研究
and they look at the ice and they study it.
积雪会封存一些 包含当时大气成分的气泡
When the snow falls, it traps little bubbles of atmosphere
他们能测量出
and they can go in and measure
那年大气的二氧化碳含量
how much CO2 was in the atmosphere the year that that snow fell.
有趣的是
What’s even more interesting, I think, is
通过测量氧的各个同位素
they can measure the different isotopes of oxygen
建立一个精确的温度参照
and figure out a very precise thermometer
可以测得当气泡被积雪封存时的
and tell you what the temperature was
当年的大气温度
the year that that bubble was trapped in the snow as it fell.
我在南极见过这种冰芯
When I was in Antarctica, I saw cores like this.
一个家伙看着它 说
And a guy looked at it. He said,
“这一年美国国会通过了《空气洁净法》”
“Right here is where the US Congress passed the Clean Air Act.”
我都不敢相信
And I couldn’t believe it.
不过就算用肉眼也能辨别出
But you can see the difference with the naked eye.
法令通过几年后
Just a couple of years after that law was passed,
对应的冰芯有明显的界限
it’s very clearly distinguishable.
他们可以倒着按年份数过去
They can count back year by year
就像看林人数树木的年轮一样
the same way a forester reads tree rings.
年复一年的冰冻和消融
And you can see each annual layer from the melting and re-freezing,
使他们可以倒推到1000年以前
so they can go back in a lot of these mountain glaciers 1,000 years.
他们建立了一个温度表
And they constructed a thermometer of the temperature.
蓝色代表低温 红色是高温
The blue is cold and the red is warm.
我拿出这幅图有几个原因
Now, I show this for a couple of reasons.
第一 那些所谓的”怀疑论者”会说
Number one, the so-called skeptics will sometimes say,
“噢 这不过是循环现象”
“Oh, this whole thing, this is a cyclical phenomenon.
“中世纪还不是有比较温暖的时期”
“There was a medieval warming period, after all.”
没错 这不就有一个
Well, yeah, there was. There it is, right there.
这还有两个
There are two others.
可是同现在的情况相比
But compared to what’s going on now,
完全就是微不足道
there’s just no comparison.
现在回头看1000年来的温度变化
So if you look at 1,000 years’ won’th of temperature
与1000年来二氧化碳的变化联♥系♥起来
and compare it to 1,000 years of CO2,
你可以看到两者十分吻合
you can see how closely they fit together.
1000年来冰川中二氧化碳的含量
Now, 1,000 years of CO2 in the mountain glaciers,
这是一点
that’s one thing.
在南极洲 研究人员 可以回溯到65万年以前
But in Antarctica, they can go back 650,000 years.
顺便提一句 这是第一次
This incidentally is the first time
向少数科学家以外的公众 展示这幅图片
anybody outside of a small group of scientists has seen this image.
这是现代
This is the present day era,
这是冰河时代
and that’s the last ice age.
然后曲线上升 我们现在是在65万年的历史中
Then it goes up. We’re going back in time now 650,000 years.
这是两个冰河时代间的温暖时期
That’s the period of warming between the last two ice ages.
这是第二 第三个冰河时代
That’s the second and third ice age back.
四 五 六
Fourth, fifth, sixth
第七次冰河时代
and seventh ice age back.
很重要的一点是
Now, an important point.
在整个65万年中
In all of this time, 650,000 years,
二氧化碳的含量
the CO2 level has never gone above
从没有超过300
300 parts per million.
我说过 他们还测量了温度
Now, as I said, they can also measure temperature.
这是地球上温度的变化
Here’s what the temperature has been on our Earth.
现在你可能会产生这样的想法…
Now, one thing that kind of jumps out at you is…
这样说 我那位6年级的同学
Well, let me put it this way. If my classmate from the sixth grade
谈论非洲和南美洲那位 要是今天也来了
that talked about Africa and South America were here,
他会问”它们能拼到一起么?”
he would say, “Did they ever fit together?”
“我听过最荒谬的问题”
“Most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.”
不过它们的确吻合
But they did, of course.
而之间的联♥系♥十分复杂
And the relationship is actually very complicated.
不过有一个联♥系♥
But there is one relationship that is far more powerful
远强过其余的
than all the others and it is this.
二氧化碳越多 气温就越高
When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer
因为它会将更多 来自太阳的热量困在地表
because it traps more heat from the sun inside.
一部分美国城市 包括那些现代化大城市
In the parts of the United States that contain the modern cities
克利夫兰 底特律 纽约 这些北部城市
of Cleveland, Detroit, New York, in the northern tier,
这里展示了好天气
this is the difference between a nice day
和地面♥积♥雪1英里深的日子
and having a mile of ice over your head.
将这一点牢记在心里
Keep that in mind when you look at this fact.
二氧化碳含量
Carbon dioxide,
从未超过300
having never gone above 300 parts per million,
这里是现在的二氧化碳含量
here is where CO2 is now.
远超过我们所能统计到的历史水平
Way above where it’s ever been as far back as this record will measure.
如果你允许的话 我还想强调一下这点
Now, if you’ll bear with me, I wanna really emphasize this point.
这里的工作人员
The crew here
教会我使用这台装置
has tried to teach me how to use this contraption here.
我只要小心地…
So, if I don’t kill myself, I’II…
已经到了这里
It’s already right here.
看看这已经把自然的起伏抛得老远
Look how far above the natural cycle this is,
这的确是不争的事实
and we’ve done that.
不过各位请注意 在未来50年
But, ladies and gentlemen, in the next 50 years,
真的 50年以内
really, in less than 50 years,
曲线还会继续爬升
it’s gonna continue to go up.
在座的小孩们 等你们到我这年纪
When some of these children who are here are my age,
这将是不到50年后的景象
here is what it’s going to be in less than 50 years.
已经超出图表的范围了
You’ve heard of off the charts.
50年内 就会到这里
Within less than 50 years, it’ll be here.
这里没有刻意设计任何一个数据
There’s not a single fact or date or number
所有的结果都毫无争议
that’s been used to make this up that’s in any controversy.
等那些”怀疑论者”看到这里 恐怕会说
The so-called skeptics look at this and they say,
“这又如何?看起来不错嘛”
“So? That seems perfectly okay.”
这…
Well,
我再重申一遍 在温度曲线上
again, if on the temperature side,
要是这么多代表1英里深的积雪
if this much on the cold side is a mile of ice over our heads,
上升到那么高 会是怎样的景象?
what would that much on the warm side be?
所以说这不是一个政♥治♥问题
Ultimately this is really not a political issue
而是道德问题
so much as a moral issue.
要是你我听之任之
If we allow that to happen,
就是极端不道德的行为
it is deeply unethical.
对我们的民♥主♥ 自治 我深信不疑
I had such faith in our democratic system,our self-government.
我曾坚信
I actually thought and believed
这些事实会激起巨大的变化
that the story would be compelling enough to cause a real sea change
从国会对这一现象的反应
in the way the Congress reacted to that issue.
我以为大众也会感到震惊
I thought they would be startled, too.
可惜没有
And they werert.
种种努力
The struggles,
还有毫无胜利可言的胜利
the victories that aren’t really victories,
毫无胜利可言的胜利
the defeats that aren’t really defeats.
他们有意强调
They can serve to magnify the significance
微不足道的一点成就
of some trivial step forward,
夸大一些严重退步的重要性
exaggerate the seeming importance of some massive setback.
1989年4月3日
April 3, 1989.