难以忽视的真相（2006）

more of the outgoing infrared is trapped.
引起世界各地温度升高 这就是全球变暖
And so the atmosphere heats up worldwide. That’s global warming.
这是传统的说法
Now, that’s the traditional explanation.
我这里有更生动的解释
Here’s what I think is a better explanation.
你可能奇怪 为什么冰淇凌没了
You’re probably wondering why your ice cream went away.
小苏茜 我们的敌人不是外国侵略者
Well, Susie, the culprit isn’t foreigners.
而是全球变暖
It’s global warming.
-全球… -对
-Global… -Yeah.
给你介绍”阳光先生”
Meet Mr. Sunbeam.
他从太阳大老远来到地球
He comes all the way from the sun to visit Earth.
地球你好啊 就是来打个招呼 照亮你的一天
Hello, Earth. Just popping in to brighten your day.
现在我该回去了
And now I’ll be on my way.
慢着 阳光
Not so fast, Sunbeam.
我们是温室气体 你哪也别想去
We’re greenouse gases. You ain’t going nowhere.
啊 好痛
Oh, God, it hurts.
很快 地球外就围满了阳光先生
Pretty soon, Earth is chock-full of Sunbeams.
他们腐烂的尸体加热了我们的大气
Their rotting corpses heating our atmosphere.
我们怎么才能去掉温室气体呢?
How do we get rid of the greenouse grasses?
很幸运地 我们伟大的政♥治♥家们
Fortunately, our handsomest politicians
想到了一条便捷的应急措施 来对抗全球变暖
came up with a cheap, last-minute way to combat global warming.
从2063年起
Ever since 2063,
我们不停地向大洋丢进一个巨型冰块
we simply drop a giant ice cube into the ocean every now and then.
就像老爸每天早上往酒里加冰块
Just like Daddy puts in his drink every morning.
然后开始发酒疯
And then he gets mad.
当然了 温室气体还在不断增多
Of course, since the greenouse gases are still building up,
就需要越来越多的冰块
it takes more and more ice each time.
这样就一劳永逸地解决了这个问题
Thus, solving the problem once and for all.
-可是… -一劳永逸
-But… -Once and for all!
我是从这幅图开始
This is the image that started me
关注这个问题
in my interest in this issue.
那时我还在读大学
And I saw it when I was a college student
我有一个教授叫罗格·雷维尔
because I had a professor named Roger Revelle
他是第一个
who was the first person
提出测量大气二氧化碳含量的人
to propose measuring carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere.
他在刚刚发现一些端倪的时候
He saw where the story was going
就弄清楚了来龙去脉
after the first few chapters.
经过开始几年的数据统计
After the first few years of data,
他的直觉就告诉他会得到什么结果
he intuited what it meant for what was yet to come.
他们1957年设计了实验
They designed the experiment in 1957.
他雇了查尔斯·大卫·基林
He hired Charles David Keeling
此人工作可靠精确
who was very faithful and precise
为测量工作投入了10多年的时间
in making these measurements for decades.
他们每天都放出气象气球
They started sending these weather balloons up every day
地点选在太平洋中部
and they chose the middle of the Pacific
因为这里最远离人烟
because it was the area that was most remote.
他是个一丝不苟的科学家
And he was a very hard-nosed scientist.
十分看重精确的数据
He really emphasized the hard data.
对我来说是 那是一段珍贵的时期
It was a wonderful time for me
因为同大多年轻人一样
because, like a lot of young people,
刚接触到”知识革新”
I came into contact with intellectual ferment,
我产生出过去做梦都没想到的
ideas that I’d never considered
无数新想法
in my wildest dreams before.
当他在课堂上
And he showed our class
向我们展示头几年的统计结果
the results of his measurements after only a few years.
我震惊了
It was startling to me.
他自己也很震惊
Now he was startled
同时清楚地向学生们
and made it clear to our class
阐述了这一发现的重大意义
what he felt the significance of it was.
那时我像海绵一样 吸收着这些新鲜观点
And I just soaked it up like a sponge.
他将人类文明的种种变化
He drew the connections between the larger changes in our civilization
与这个大气成分的观测图
and this pattern that was now visible
结合起来
in the atmosphere of the entire planet.
他又指出如果放任下去
And then he projected into the future where this was headed
曲线在未来会怎样发展
unless we made some adjustments.
一切都清清楚楚
And it was just as clear as day.
到第一个七年 八年或九年以后
After the first seven, eight, nine years,
你可以看到曲线在上升
you could see the pattern that was developing.
我问了一个问题
But I asked a question.
为什么每年都会上下起伏呢?
Why is it that it goes up and down once each year?
他解释道 如果你观察地球的陆地分布
And he explained that if you look at the land mass of the Earth,
会发现南半球只有很少一部分
very little of it is south of the equator.
而大部分陆地都集中在北半球
The vast majority of it is north of the equator,
大部分植被也集中在北半球
and most of the vegetation is north of the equator.
所以当北半球斜向太阳
And so, when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the sun,
也就是我们的春季和夏季
as it is in our spring and summer,
树木发芽长叶 吸入二氧化碳
the leaves come out and they breathe in carbon dioxide,
大气中二氧化碳含量降低
and the amount in the atmosphere goes down.
而当北半球远离太阳时
But when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted away from the sun,
也就是我们的秋季和冬季
as it is in our fall and winter,
叶子落下 释放出二氧化碳
the leaves fall and exhale carbon dioxide,
大气中二氧化碳含量又上升了
and the amount in the atmosphere goes back up again.
所以看上去就像整个地球
And so, it’s as if the entire Earth
每年呼吸一次
once each year breathes in and out.
我们从1958年开始测量二氧化碳含量
So we started measuring carbon dioxide in 1958.
可以看到
And you can see
到了60年代中期 当他展示这幅图片的时候
that by the middle ’60s, when he showed my class this image,
曲线已经开始往上走
it was already clear that it was going up.
我出于对恩师的敬重 一直跟踪他的实验
I respected him and learned from him so much, I followed this.
当我70年代进入国会的时候
And when I went to the Congress in the middle 1970s,
我参与组织了首次全球变暖的听证会
I helped to organize the first hearings on global warming
邀请我的教授 作为第一轮的证人
and asked my professor to come and be the leadoff witness.
我以为能产生很大影响
And I thought that would have such a big impact,
好早日着手解决这一危机 可惜没能如愿
we’d be on the way to solving this problem, but it didn’t work that way.
但我坚持举办听证会 1984年我进入参议院
But I kept having hearings. And in 1984 I went to the Senate
在这一问题上投入了大量精力
and really dug deeply into this issue
举办了科学研讨会以及相关讨论
with science roundtables and the like.
关于这个我曾写过一本书
I wrote a book about it,
然后于1988年参加总统竞选
ran for President in 1988,
部分原因也是为了引起公众 在这个问题上的重视
partly to try to gain some visibility for that issue.
1992年进入白宫 我们通过了一项二氧化碳排放税
And in 1992 went to the White House. We passed a version of a carbon tax
以及其他一些措施来控制危机
and some other measures to try to address this.
1997参加京都议定书的谈判
Went to Kyoto in 1997 to help get a treaty
不过引起了激烈的争论 至少在美国是这样
that’s so controversial, in the US at least.
2000年
In 2000,
我的竞争对手开始管制二氧化碳
my opponent pledged to regulate CO2 and then
可惜没有坚持下去
That was not a pledge that was kept.
不过重点在于
But the point of this is
整体上可以看出
all this time you can see
这么多年来
what I have seen all these years.
曲线都在无情地爬升
It just keeps going up. It is relentless.
而现实世界中我们也能找到印证
And now we’re beginning to see the impact in the real world.
这是30多年前的乞力马扎罗山
This is Mount Kilimanjaro more than 30 years ago
这是近照
and more recently.
我的朋友刚从乞力马扎罗山回来
And a friend of mine just came back from Kilimanjaro
带来一张几个月前拍摄的图片
with a picture he took a couple of months ago.
我的另一个研究冰川的朋友朗尼·汤普森
Another friend, Lonnie Thompson, studies glaciers.
这是朗尼和这个”巨大冰川”的最后一角
Here’s Lonnie with a last sliver of one of the once mighty glaciers.
10年内 乞力马扎罗山上 将不会再有冰雪
Within the decade there will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro.
这是冰河国家公园
This is happening in Glacier National Park.
我曾于1998年同女儿登上山顶
I climbed to the top of this in 1998 with one of my daughters.
15年内 这里的冰川将成为历史
Within 15 years, this will be the park formerly known as Glacier.
这是哥伦比亚冰川逐年的变化
Here is what’s been happening year by year to the Columbia Glacier.
每一年它都在缩小
It just retreats every single year.
真是可惜 这些冰川都如此美丽
And it’s a shame ’cause these glaciers are so beautiful.
而那些前去观赏的人们
But those who go up to see them,
现在只会看到这样的场面 日复一日
here’s what they’re seeing every day, now.
尼泊尔AX010冰川
喜马拉雅山脉 就面对着严峻的问题
In the Himalayas there’s a particular problem
因为占世界40%的人口
because 40% of all the people in the world
依靠河流和泉水提供饮用水
get their drinking water from rivers and spring systems
而它们一半以上都是 冰川融化而来
that are fed more than half by the melt water coming off the glaciers.