大空头

弗兰克 家人都好吗
Hiya, Frank. How are the wife and kids?
我觉得国库券和公共事业股票
You know, for you, I’m considering treasury bonds
比较适合你 抽烟吗
and utility stocks. Smoke?
在七十年代末 银行业
In the late ’70s, banking wasn’t a job
可赚不了大钱
you went into to make large sums of money.
就是他妈的小打小闹
It was a fucking snooze.
纽约大都会赢了吗
How about those Mets?
充斥着废柴 比如卖♥♥保险的
Filled with losers. Like selling insurance or
或者会计师
accounting.
如果说银行业无聊的话
And if banking was boring,
那银行的债券部门简直就让人昏昏欲睡
then the bond department at the bank was straight-up comatose.
我们都知道债券是怎么回事
We all know about bonds.
在你那还流着鼻涕的孩子满十五岁时给他
You give them to your snot-nosed kid when he turns 15.
也许等他到了三十岁能赚个一百块
Maybe when he’s 30 he makes a hundred bucks.
无聊
Boring.
直到所罗门兄弟银行的
That is, until Lewis Ranieri came on the scene
路易斯·拉涅利出现
at Salomon Brothers.
你也许不知道他是谁 但他对你生活的改变
You might not know who he is, but he changed your life
比迈克尔·乔丹 iPod和油管的总和都多
more than Michael Jordan, the iPod and YouTube put together.
好了先生们 我们来赚钱吧
All right, gentlemen! Let’s get some money in here!
我们来赚钱吧 你们说怎么样
Let’s make some money! What do you say?
路易斯还没有意识到
You see, Lewis didn’t know it yet,
但他只用了一个简单的点子
but he had already changed banking forever
就永远改变了银行业
with one simple idea.
住房♥抵押贷款支持证券
The mortgage-backed security.
或者弄成品牌叫MBS
Or private-label MBS.
你们都有普通的住房♥抵押贷款
You’ve got your average person’s mortgage.
固定利率 三十年期
Fixed rate, 30 years.
风险小 回报低 对吧
Boring, safe, small payoff, right? But,
但当你把成千上万的贷款绑在一起
when you have thousands of them all bundled together,
突然间投资收益上升了但风险依然很小
suddenly the yield goes up but the risk is still small because,
因为它们是住房♥抵押贷款
well, they’re mortgages!
谁会不还住房♥抵押贷款呢
And who the hell doesn’t pay their mortgage?
这种债券的信用评级是多少
What exactly is the credit rating on this bond?
先生们 这种债券是AAA级的
This bond, gentlemen, is AAA-rated.
这正是密歇根州立
This is exactly what the
养老基金在寻找的投资
Michigan state pension fund has been looking for.
我要买♥♥两千万
I’ll buy $20 million.
拜托 胆子大一点
Oh, come on, live a little.
两千五百万
$25 million.
钱源源不断地来了
The money came raining down,
史上第一次
and for the first time,
银行家们从乡村俱乐部到了脱衣舞俱乐部
the banker went from the country club to the strip club.
很快 股票和储蓄变得无足轻重
Pretty soon, stocks and savings were almost inconsequential.
他们一年里创造了五百亿 一千亿…
They were doing $50, $100, $200 billion
两千亿的抵押债券和其他形式的债券
in mortgage bonds and dozens of other securities a year.
美国人并没有注意到第一行业
And America barely noticed as its number one industry
变成了无聊的银行业
became boring old banking.
后来有一天 大概三十年后 2008年
And then one day, almost 30 years later, in 2008,
泡沫破裂 经济崩♥盘♥
it all came crashing down.
三月 贝尔斯登公♥司♥严重亏损
March. Bear Stearns was in a death spiral
联邦政♥府♥促成了它的被收♥购♥
and the Fed brokered its sale.
这被称作
It’s been
当代最严重的金融危机
called the worst financial crisis in modern times.
毫无疑问是这个国家
Certainly the largest
几十年以来最大的金融危机
financial disaster in decades in this country,
也许是美国经济一个时代的终结
and perhaps the end of an era in American business.
到头来 路易斯·拉涅利的住房♥抵押贷款支持证券
In the end, Lewis Ranieri’s mortgage-backed security
突变成了使世界经济
mutated into a monstrosity
崩溃的怪兽
that collapsed the whole world economy.
而且没有任何专家
And none of the experts or
领袖或发言人事先知道这一点
leaders or talking heads had a clue it was coming.
我猜你们中的大部分还一无所知
I’m guessing most of you still don’t really know what happened.
为了不显得太蠢
Yeah, you got a soundbite you
你会重复电视采访的说法 但得了吧
repeat so you don’t sound dumb, but come on.
我们的财政机构是强大的
Our financial institutions are strong.
但还是有人预测出了它的来临
But there were some who saw it coming.
当整个世界都在狂欢时
While the whole world was having a big old party,
一些局外人和怪人看到了别人看不见的
a few outsiders and weirdos saw what no one else could.
不是我 我不是怪人 我很酷
Not me. I’m not a weirdo. I’m pretty fucking cool.
但我们一会儿会再见面的
But we’ll meet again later.
这些局外人看到了经济中心的巨大谎言
These outsiders saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy.
他们是通过做其他二货
And they saw it by doing something
没有想到的事情看出来的
the rest of the suckers never thought to do.
他们仔细研究过
They looked.
在二十世纪三十年代
During the 1930s,
全国范围的房♥屋市场蒸发了
the housing market collapsed nationwide
近80%的财富
by roughly 80%.
半数的住房♥抵押贷款都违约了
I mean, half of all mortgage debt was in default.
我是说 这有
And, I mean, there were very
非常具体的标志 非常容易识别
specific identifiers, extremely recognizable.
比如说
I mean, for instance,
狂热的标志之一是
one of the hallmarks of mania
衍生品的复杂性
is the rapid rise
和欺诈比例的快速增长
in complexity and the rates of fraud.
你知道它们在持续上升吗
And did you know that they’re going up?
我总是在
I’ve always been
独自一人时感觉更舒适
more comfortable alone.
我觉得可能是因为我的玻璃眼睛
I believe maybe it’s because of my glass eye.
我在童年疾病中失去了一只眼睛
I lost the eye in a childhood illness.
它使我和他人隔绝
It separates me from people.
你知道它们在
And did you know that they are going
持续上升吗
up?
自从二十世纪三十年代以来的最高的欺诈率
The highest fraud rates since the 1930s.
没事的 没事的
Hey, hey, it’s okay. It’s okay.
不 我不知道
No, I didn’t know that.
在1933年 大萧条的第四年
In 1933, the fourth year of the Great Depression.
我们洗一洗再把它装回去
Let’s wash it off and put it back in.
你打得很好 儿子
You were playing so great, son.
教练都这么说了
I even heard the coach say it.
我们能回家吗
Can we just go home?
大多数的社交活动对我和其他人而言都是尴尬的
Most social interactions are awkward for me and for the person.
哪怕当我试着称赞某人
Even when I try to compliment someone,
都事与愿违
it comes out wrong.
你发型不错 自己剪的吗
You have a very nice haircut. Did you do it yourself?
什么
What?
不 不 我
No. No, I…
抱歉 我只是
I’m sorry. I’m just…
我话太多了
I’m going on and on.
我妻子跟我说我需要多分享
My wife told me I need to share more.
-看起来挺健康的 -是啊
– That seems healthy. – Yeah.
我应聘成功了吗
So do I get the job?
我真的觉得我可以帮到你的基金
I really think I could help your fund.
是的
Yeah.
当然 你去把
Yeah, sure. Go on.
-你叫… -David 太好了
– You’re… – David. Great.
我去找张办公桌
I guess I’ll go find a desk.
你有什么想让我开始做的吗
Is there anything you want me to work on for start…
好
Yeah.
你可以待会儿再告诉我 我再过来
You could let me know later. I could come back.
你觉得2001年技术泡沫破裂
Did you think it was strange when, um,
而作为世界技术之都的
the tech bubble burst in 2001
圣何塞房♥市高涨
and the housing market in San Jose,
同时发生
the tech capital of the world,
奇怪吗
went up?
难道不奇怪吗
Wasn’t that strange?
不
No.
不 因为是住房♥ 住房♥很稳固
No, it’s housing. Housing is always stable.
低风险 稳定的
Low risk. It’s solid.
是这么回事
That’s the idea, yeah.