点球成金（2011）

你应该计划着让我打首场比赛吧
Would you have drafted me in the first round?
对 因为你曾是个出色的球员
I did, yeah. You were a good player.
伙计 别废话
Cut the crap, man.
换成你决策 当时会把我排在首发吗
Would you have drafted me in the first round?
我会把你排第九场 并且没有签约奖金
I’d have taken you in the ninth round. No signing bonus.
那样或许你会放弃 然后去上大学
I imagine you would’ve passed and taken that scholarship.
也许吧
Yeah.
收拾收拾 皮特
Pack your bags, Pete.
我刚把你从克利夫兰印第安人挖过来了
I just bought you from the Cleveland Indians.
-这跟夹钳连着吗 -对 我这就解开
– Is it attached to that clamp? – Yeah, let me unhook it.
从那边滑下去
Slide it up right there.
左边吗 好了
To the left. I did.
-对 对 -等等 还湿着呢
– Yeah, yeah. – Hang on, it’s wet.
行政处
早上好 苏珊娜
Morning, Suzanne.
-咖啡好了吗 -好了
– Coffee on? – Yes.
很好
Great.
比利·比恩办公室
Billy Beane’s office.
-皮特·布兰德 -比利
– Peter Brand. – Billy.
-你好 -见到你很高兴
– Hi, how you doing? – Nice to see you.
欢迎你加入
Good to have you here.
小子 来得挺快
Boy, you move in fast.
是啊 今早到的
Yeah, yeah. I got here early this morning.
-安置妥当了 -好
– All moved in. – Yeah.
比利
Hey, Billy,
你看一下吧
I wanted you to see
你让我做的这些球员的评估
these player evaluations that you asked me to do.
我只让你评估三个
I asked you to do three.
是的
Yeah.
-评估三个球员 -没错
– To evaluate three players. – Yeah.
那你评估了几个
How many did you do?
四十七个
Forty-seven.
好的
Okay.
其实是五十一个
Actually, 51.
我也不知道为什么刚才说漏了
I don’t know why I lied just then.
不如和我一起给董事会解释一下吧
Why don’t you walk me through the board?
谢谢
Thank you.
由左上角这个方程可知
Using this equation in the upper left,
要想进季后赛
I’m projecting that we need to win at least 99 games
我们至少得赢九十九场
in order to make it to the postseason.
要想赢九十九场 至少要得八百十四分
We need to score at least 814 runs in order to win those games
并将失分控制在六百四十五分以下
and allow no more than 6♥4♥5 runs.
这是什么
What’s this?
这是我写的同比数据预测代码
This is a code that I’ve written for our year-to-year projections.
要建立这些情报
This is building in the intelligence
我们必须研究球员
that we have to project players.
好
Okay.
将所有信息通过计算得到一个数值
It’s about getting things down to one number.
通过解读这些统计数字
Using the stats the way we read them,
就能发现别人意想不到的球员价值
we’ll find value in players that nobody else can see.
球员通常会由于
People are overlooked
各种偏见和臆断而被埋没
for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws.
比如年龄 外貌 性格
Age, appearance, personality.
比尔·詹姆斯 棒球统计学大♥师♥
比尔·詹姆斯的数学理论克服了这些弊端
Bill James and mathematics cut straight through that.
比利 在我们关注的两万名球员中
Billy, of the 20,000 notable players for us to consider,
肯定能找到我们承担得起的二十五人
I believe that there is a championship team
组建一支冠军队
of 25 people that we can afford,
因为别人会低估他们
because everyone else in baseball undervalues them.
就像一堆还没发光的金子
Like an island of misfit toys.
比利 他是查德·布莱德福特
Billy, this is Chad Bradford.
是名候援投手
He’s a relief pitcher.
他是棒球界被埋没最深的人才之一
He is one of the most undervalued players in baseball.
他缺点是投球姿势古怪
His defect is that he throws funny.
因为他一副小丑相
Nobody in the big leagues cares about him
大联盟里没人在意他
because he looks funny.
他不仅会成为我们队里最佳的候援投手
This guy could be not just the best pitcher in our pen,
在整个棒球界也会大放异彩
but one of the most effective relief pitchers in all baseball.
这名球员身价一年三百万
This guy should cost $3 million a year.
我们二十三万七就可以拿下
We can get him for 237,000.
比利
Billy.
-名单吗 -是
– That it? – Yeah.
阿尔特
Hey, Art.
趁还没开会 我能先跟你谈谈吗
Can I talk to you before you get started?
-我正忙着呢 -我知道
– I’m a bit busy right now. – I know.
-我知道 -好吧
– I know. – Okay.
大家早上好
Morning, everyone.
我是阿尔特
Art.
-皮特·布兰德 -见到你很高兴
– Peter Brand. – Nice to meet you.
皮特怎么还不进来
Where the hell’s Pete?
这是皮特
That’s Pete.
找个座位 我一会就来
Grab a seat. I’ll be right back.
你说他哪儿来的
All right, where did you say he’s at?
好吧 他是…
Okay. He’s on…
-那小子是谁 -我一个朋友
– Who’s the kid? – A friend of mine.
就一年合同 这队伍我可培养不起来
I can’t manage this team under a one-year contract.
你当然能
Well, sure you can.
不能
No, I can’t.
这样吧 我先尽快组个队
Okay. I gotta put a team on the field.
随后我再仔细看看你的合同
After that, I’ll take a good long look at your contract.
我看还是先搞定教练的合同
How about you deal with the manager’s contract,
再组队吧
then put a team on the field.
阿尔特 目前这情况
Art, at this moment,
球滚到一垒都没人捡
if a grounder’s hit to first, nobody’s there to stop it.
合同就一年
It’s not easy doing what I do
在这种压力下我很难办
under the cloud of a one-year contract.
是的 我理解
Okay, I understand that.
-我也这样 -我知道
– I’ve been there. – I know you have.
一年的合同没法干
A one-year contract means the same thing
对于教练和球员来说都一样
to a manager as to a player.
上赛季赢了一百零二场还没信心
There’s not a lot of faith there
这也太奇怪了
which is strange after a 102-win season.
我明白
I see.
如果你输了赛季最后一场
If you lose the last game of the season,
就什么也得不到
nobody gives a shit.
都是我的问题吗
So it’s on me now?
不 阿尔特 是我的问题
No, Art, it’s on me.
还有 那小子是我的新助理
And the kid is the new assistant GM.
-好 -好 开会了
– Okay. – Okay, fellas.
比利
Hey, Billy.
他的攻击力毋容置疑 他打得很好
You can’t deny his offensive output. He can play.
我们要的就是打得好的人
And we need people that can play.
你想先讨论哪个队员
Who do you wanna talk about first?
这些人都不行
None of them.
比利 我们得完成三十八个本垒打
Billy, we got 38 home runs,
一百二十分打点
120 RBIs to make up for.
伙计们 你们一心想找人替代吉昂比
Guys, you’re still trying to replace Giambi.
我告诉过你们这行不通 肯定行不通
I told you we can’t do it, and we can’t do it.
我们现在能做的是重新合成一个吉昂比
Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him.
-从总量上合成他 -什么意思
– Re-create him in the aggregate. – The what?
吉昂比的上垒率是0.477
Giambi’s on-base percentage was 0.477.
戴蒙上垒率是0.324
Damon’s on-base, 0.324.
奥尔梅多是0.291
And Olmedo’s was 0.291.
三个加起来是
Add that up and you get…
我来说吗
Do you want me to speak?
我指你就是让你说话
When I point at you, yeah.
-1.092 -除以三
– 1.092. – Divided by three.
-0.36♥4♥ -我们要的就是这个
– 0.36♥4♥. – That’s what we’re looking for.
三名球员的平均上垒率是
Three ballplayers whose average OBP is…
0.36♥4♥
0.36♥4♥.
-等等 这样算不对 -没错的 阿蒂
– Wait, that doesn’t come out right. – It’s right, Artie.