监守自盗

我们从来没有出现过
on a nationra , ba , a nationwide basis.
全国范围内的房价大跌
Ben Bernanke became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in February 2006,
本·伯南克于2006年2月上任美联储主席
the top year for subprime lending.
那也是次级贷款的巅峰年
But despite numerous warnings,
尽管受到诸多警告
Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Board did nothing.
伯南克与美联储没有采取任何措施
Robert Gnaizda met with ben Bernanke
自伯南克上任后
and the Federal Reserve Board three times
罗伯特·那兹达曾三度与本·伯南克
after Bernanke became chairman.
及联邦储备委员会委员会面
Only at the last meeting
直至最后一次会面
did he suggest that there was a problem,
他才暗示可能存在问题
and that the government ought to look into it.
并且应当得到政府的重视
When? When was that? What year?
那是什么时候 哪一年
It’s 2009, March 11th, in D.C.
2009年3月11日 当时在特区
This year. This year we met, yes.
今年吗 对 今年会面的时候
And so for the two previous years you met him,
这么说 前两次会面他都没有提过吗
even in 2008? Yes
08年也没提? 没提
One of the six Federal Reserve Board governors
伯南克手下六名美联储理事
serving under Bernanke was Frederic Mishkin,
其中就包括弗雷德里克·米什金
who was appointed by President Bush in 2006.
由布什总统于2006年任命
Did you participate in the semiannual meetings that, uh,
你参加了罗伯特·那兹达和格林宁研究所
Robert Gnaizda and, and, uh, Greenlining had with the Federal Reserve Board?
与美联储共同召开的半年度会议吗
Yes I did. I was actually on the committee that, uh,
是的 我当时在委员会里
that was involved, involved with that the Consumer and Community Affairs Committee.
消费者与共同体事务委员会
He warned, in an extremely explicit manner,
他对当时的情况
about what was going on
提出了明确警告
and he came to the Federal Reserve Board with loan documentation
而且带着贷款文件来到美联储
of the kind of loans that were frequently being made.
当时那种贷款交易非常频繁
And he was listened to politely, and nothing was done.
你们礼貌地听了他的意见 但毫无动作
Yeah. So, uh, I, I don’t know the details,
对 其实我不太清楚这里面的细节
in terms of, of, uh, of, um. Uh, in fact, I, I just don’t ?I, I.
根据 呃 实际上 我不…我 我
whatever information he provide, I’m not sure exactly, I, eh, uh
不管他提供了什么信息 我都不能完全
it’s, it’s actually, to be honest with you,
其实是这样 老实说
I can’t remember the, the, this kind of discussion.
我不记得讨论过这种问题
But certainly, uh, there, there were issues that were, uh, uh, coming up.
但可以肯定的是 当时确实有问题出现
But then the question is, how pervasive are they?
但随之而来的是 这些问题有多严重
Why didn’t you try looking?
你们怎么没去调查
I think that people did.
我认为有人调查过了
We had people looking at,
我们有派人调查
a whole group of people looking at this,for whatever reason.
原因不重要 但我们派了一组人去调查
Excuse me, you can’t be serious.
抱歉 你肯定是在说笑吧
If you would have looked, you would have found things.
如果你们调查过 肯定会有所发现
Uh, you know, that’s very, very easy
要知道 说起来容易
to always say that you can always find it.
肯定会有所发现 这话说起来简单
As early as 2004,
早在2004年年初
the FBI was already warning about an epidemic of mortgage fraud.
FBI曾就抵押贷款诈骗流行作出警告
They reported inflated appraisals,
其中提到了夸虚增估价
doctored loan documentation, and other fraudulent activity.
篡改贷款文件以及其他欺诈活动
In 2005, the IMF’s chief economist, Raghuram Rajan,
2005年IMF首席经济学家拉古拉姆·瑞占
warned that dangerous incentives could lead to a crisis.
警告说 危险的刺激奖励机制可能会导致危机
Then came Nouriel Roubini’s warnings in 2006
然后在2006年 鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼也作出警告
Allan Sloan’s articles in
2007年艾伦·斯隆
fortune magazine and the Washington Post in 2007
也在《财富杂志》和《华盛顿邮报》上发表文章
and repeated warnings from the IMF.
还有来自IMF不断的警告
I said it, and on behalf of the institution:
我代表机构这么说过
ah, the crisis which is in front of us is a huge crisis.
我们面临的危机是巨大的
Who did you talk to?
你跟谁说的
The government, Treasury, s , Fed, everybody.
政府 财政部 美联储 所有人
In May of 2007, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman
2007年5月 对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼
circulated a presentation called “Who’s Holding the Bag?”,
做了一个报告 题为《谁是幕后黑手》
which described how the bubble would unravel.
描述了泡沫将会如何破灭
And in early 2008, Charles Morris
而在2008年初 查尔斯·莫里斯
published his book about the impending crisis.
出版了关于即将到来的危机的著作
You’re just not sure, what do you do?
你不知道该怎么办
And you, you might have some suspicions
你或许会怀疑
that underwriting standards are being weakened
贷款标准正在降低
but then the question is, should you do anything about it?
但随后的问题是 你应该有所行动吗
By 2008, home foreclosures were skyrocketing,
到2008年 房产抵押收回量激增
and the securitization food chain imploded.
证券化食物链断裂
Lenders could no longer sell their loans to the investment banks
贷方无法再向投资银行出售贷款
and as the loans went bad,
而一旦贷款无法偿还
dozens of lenders failed
大量放贷人破产
Chuck Prince, of Citibank, famously said that,
花旗银行的查克·普林斯有一句名言
we have to dance until the music stops.
音乐不停 我们的舞步就不能停
Actually, the music had stopped already when he said that.
但其实他说这句话时 音乐已经停了
The market for CDOs collapsed,
CDO市场崩盘
leaving the investment banks holding hundreds of billions of dollars
让投资银行数千亿美元被套牢
in loans, CDOs, and real estate they couldn’t sell.
包括卖不出去的贷款 CDO和不动产
When the crisis started both the Bush administration
危机一开始的时候 布什政府
and the Federal Reserve were totally behind the curve.
和美联储都被蒙在鼓里
They did not understand the extent of it.
他们不知道范围有多广
At what point do you remember thinking, for the first time,
你记得是在什么时候 开始意识到
this is dangerous, this is bad?
这种情况很危险 很糟糕
I remember very well, uh, one
我记得很清楚
I think it was a G7 meeting, of February 2008.
是在2008年2月七国财长会议(G7)上
And I remember discussing the issue with, with Hank Paulson.
我记得我和亨利·保尔森讨论这个问题
And I clearly remember telling Hank:
我清楚地记得我跟亨利说
we are watching this tsunami coming.
我们眼睁睁的看着海啸来临
And you just proposing that we ask which swimming costume we are going to put on.
你居然还在关心我们该穿上什么泳衣
What was his response, what was his feeling?
他是怎么回答的 他有什么感受
Things are pretty much under control. Yes, we are looking at,
事情还在控制之中 我们正在调查
this situation carefully, and uh
正在仔细调查
yeah, it’s under control.
都在控制之中
We’re gonna keep growing, okay? And obviously, I’ll say it:
我们要保持增长 而且很明显 我这么说吧
if you’re growing, you’re not in recession, right?
如果你还在增长 那就没有衰退 对吗
I mean,we all know that.
这是众所周知的
In March of 2008, the investment bank Bear Stearns ran out of cash,
2008年3月 贝尔斯登投资银行现金耗尽
and was acquired for two dollars a share by JP Morgan Chase.
并以每股两美元被摩根大通集团收购
The deal was backed by 30 billion dollars
这项交易得到美联储
in emergency guarantees from the Federal Reserve.
300亿美元的紧急担保支持
That was the time when the administration could have come in,
就在那个时候 政府原本可以介入
and put in place various kinds of measures
采取各种措施
that would have reduced system risk.
以降低系统风险
The information that I’m receiving from some entities
据我从一些单位了解的信息来看
is the end is not here, that there are other shoes to fall.
事情还没有结束 还有更多问题会发生
I’ve seen those investment banks
我看到很多投资银行
working with the Fed and the SEC
与美联储和证监会合作
to strengthen their liquidity,
来加强贴现能力
to strengthen their the, their capital positions.
来改善资产状况
I get reports all the time.
我经常收到这类报告
Our regulators are, are very vigilant.
我们的监管机构 是高度警觉的
On September 7th, 2008
2008年9月7日
Henry Paulson announced the federal takeover
亨利·保尔森宣布联邦政府将收购
of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
房利美和房地美
two giant mortgage lenders on the brink of collapse.
两家濒临破产的大型房贷机构
Nothing about our actions today
我们今天的行动
in any way reflects a changed view of the housing correction
并不代表房地产业矫正 相较以往有变
or the strength of other U.S. Financial institutions.
或其他美国金融机构实力上有任何变化
Two days later, Lehman Brothers announced record losses
两天后 雷曼兄弟报历史最大亏损
of 3.2 billion dollars, and its stock collapsed.
亏损3.2亿美元 股价暴跌
The effects of Lehman and AIG in September
九月份的雷曼和AIG效应
still came as a surprise.
还是让人始料未及
I mean, this is even after July, and Fannie and Freddie.
这还是在七月房利美和房利美事件发生后
So clearly, there was stuff that as of September,
所以很显然 有些情况 而且是重要情况
major stuff that nobody knew about.
直到九月还是没人知道
I think that’s, I think that’s fair.
我想 可以这么说
Bear Stearns was rated AAA,
贝尔斯登在破产前一个月
like, a month before it went bankrupt?
仍然是AAA的评级吗
Uh, more likely A2. A2.
实际上是AA AA
Yeah. Okay.
是的 好吧
A2 is still not bankrupt.