监守自盗

AIG the worlds largest insurence company
AIG 全球最大的保险公司
was selling huge quantities of derivatives
销售了大量衍生品
called credit default swaps
即信用违约互换
For investers who owned CDOs
对于持有CDO的投资者来说
credit default swaps worked like an insurance policy
信用违约互换就像一张保险单
An investor who purchase credit default swap
购买信用违约互换的投资者
paid AIG accordingly premium
按期付款给AIG公司
If CDO went bad
一旦CDO出现问题
AIG promised to pay to investor for their losses
AIG承诺赔偿投资者损失
But unlike regular insurance
但与常规保险不同
speculators could also buy credit default swaps from AIG
投机者也可以从AIG公司购买信用违约互换
in order to bet against CDOs they didn’t own
以便对不属于自己的CDO下注
In insurence you could only insure something you own
在保险业中 只能为自己拥有的东西投保
Let’s say you and I own property
比如说 你我拥有资产
and I own a house
我拥有一幢房屋
I can only insure that house once
我只能对该房屋投保一次
the derivatives universe essentially enables
而衍生品实质上使得每个人
anybody to actually insure that house
都可以为该房屋投保
So you could insure that somebody else could do that
所以你可以对其投保 其他人也可以
so 50 people could insure my house
有五十个人可以为我的房屋投保
So what happens is if my house burns down
情况是这样 一旦我的房屋烧毁
the number of losses in the system becomes proportionally large
体系中的损失也相应变得很大
Since credit default swaps were unregulated
因为信用违约互换并不受监管
AIG didn’t have put aside any money to cover potential losses
AIG没有储备资金弥补潜在损失
Instead AIG paid its employees huge cash bonuses
相反 一旦签订合同
as soon as contract was signed
AIG便给员工发放大额奖金
but if a CDOs later went bad
而一旦CDO出现问题
AIG would be on the hook
AIG便会陷入泥潭
People were essentially been rewarded for taking massive risks.
本质上说 当时的机制鼓励人们冒巨大风险
In good times they generate short term revenues
年成好的时候 会产生短期税收
and profits and therefore bonuses
利润 和由此而来的奖金
but that’s gonna lead to the firm to be bankrupt over time
当长此下去 会导致公司破产
that’s totally distorted system of compensation
这是一个完全扭曲的薪酬制度
AIG Financial Products division in Lonodon
AIG在伦敦的金融产品部
issued $500 billion
在泡沫期
worth of credit default swaps during the bubble,
发行了价值五千亿的信用违约互换
many of them for CDOs backed by subprime mortgages
其中许多是由次级贷支撑的CDO
The 400 employees of AIG FP
AIG金融产品部的四百名员工
made $3.5 billion between 2000 and 2007
在2000年到2007年间 共赚得35亿美元
Joseph Cassano
约瑟夫·卡萨诺
the head of AIG FP
AIG金融产品部主管
personally made $315 million
个人收入达三亿一千五百万
It’s hard for us, without being flippant，
这么说并非轻率
to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason
但理性看来 在这些交易中
that would see us losing $1 in any of those transactions
要损失一块钱都很难
In 2007 AIG auditors riaied warnings
2007年 AIG审计员提出警告
One of them Joseph St. Denis
约瑟夫·圣丹尼斯作为其中之一
resigned in protest
辞职以示抗议
After Cassano repeatedly
此前卡萨诺多次出面
blocked him from investigating AIG FP’s accounting
阻挠他调查AIG金融产品部会计记录
Let me tell you one person
我告诉你 有一个人
who didn’t get a bonus when everybody else was getting bonuses
当大家都分得红利时 他一分钱没拿
That was St Denis
那就是圣丹尼斯
Mr. St. Denis
圣丹尼斯先生
who tried to alert two of you
曾试图警告你们二位
to the fact that you are running into big problems
这样下去会惹上大麻烦
he quit in frustration and he didn’t get a bonus
他在精疲力竭后辞职 一分奖金未得
In 2005 Raghuram Rajan then the
2005年 拉古拉姆·瑞占
Chief economist of the International Monetary Fund
时任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家
delivered a paper at the Annual Jackson Hole symposium
在杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会
the most elite banking conference in the world
这一银行界顶尖会议上递交论文
Who was in the audience?
当时在场的有谁
It was I guess a central bankers of the world
我想世界上最核心的银行家应该都在
ranging from Mr. Greenspan himself,
格林斯潘先生本人也在
Ben Bernanke,
本?伯南克
Larry Summers was there,
拉里·萨默斯在场
Tim Geithner was there
提姆·盖特纳也在场
The title of the paper was essentially
报告的标题很关键
Is Financial Development Making the World Riskier?
金融发展是否让世界愈加不稳定
and the conclusion was it is.
结论是肯定的
Rajan’s paper focused on
瑞占的论文
incentives structures that generated huge cash bonuses
聚焦于刺激奖励机制 其在短期利润基础上
based on short term profits,
产生巨额现金奖金
but which imposed no penalties for later losses.
却不对对此后的损失处以任何罚金
Rajan argued that these
瑞占认为
incentives encouraged bankers to take risks
这种刺激奖励机制鼓励银行家去冒险
that might eventually destroy their own firms,
最终可能会摧毁其自己的公司
or even the entire financial system.
甚至摧毁整个金融体系
It’s very easy to generate perfomance by taking on more risk.
承担更大的风险可以轻松产生绩效
And so what you need to do
所以你提供薪酬
is compensate for risk adjusted performance,
应该根据风险调整后的绩效
and that’s where all the bodies are buried.
这才是真正的绩效
Rajan, you know, hit the nail on the head.
瑞占可以说是一针见血
What he particularly said was:
他尤其说道
“You guys have claimed you found a way
“你们口口声声说自己找到了
to make more profit with less risk,
低风险高利润的赚钱途径
I say you found a way to make a more profit with more risk”
要我说 这一途径是高风险高利润”
And there’s a big difference.
两者相去甚远
Summers was vocal.
萨默斯说话很直接
He basically thought that
他基本上是这么认为
I was criticizing the change in the financial world.
我是在批判金融界变革
And was worried about regulation,
担忧监管问题
which reverse this whole change.
这种会逆转变革的东西
So essentially he accused me of being a Luddite.
所以实际上 他就是指责我为勒德分子
He wanted to make sure that
他不希望
we didn’t bring a whole new set of regulations
我们搞出一套新的监管制度
to constrain the financial sector at that point.
在那种情形下制约金融业
You gonna make an extra $2 million dollars a year
你可以每年多赚两百万美元
or $10 million dollars a year
或一千万美元
for puting you financial institution at risk.
只要你敢拿你的金融机构冒险
Someone else pays the bill you don’t pay the bill.
会有别人为此买单 与你无关
Would you make that bet?
你愿意赌一把吗
Most people who worked on Wall Street said:
大多数在华尔街工作的人都说
“Sure, I make that bet”.
“当然愿意 我赌一把”
汉普顿 距离纽约两小时路程
That’s never was enough.
他们欲求不满
They never wanna own one home.
他们不想只有一处房子
They wanna own five homes
他们想要坐拥五处房产
and they wanna have an expensive Penthouse on Park Avenue.
想拥有一套林荫大道上的高价顶层公寓
And they want have they own private jet.
还想拥有私人飞机
You think this is an industry where high,
您认为在这个行业 高额薪酬
very high compensation levels is just fine?
如此高额的薪酬没问题吗
I think I would take caution, take heed,
对于你所说的”高额”
or take exception at your word very high,
我持谨慎态度 不同意这一说法
I mean it’s all relative.
数额大小都是相对的
You have a $40 million oceanfront home in Florida,
你在佛罗里达拥有四千亿美元的滨海住宅
you have a summer vacation home in Sun Valley, Idaho.
在爱达荷的太阳谷拥有一处避暑住宅
You and your wife have art collection
你们夫妻的艺术收藏品中
filled with million dollar paintings.
充斥着价值百万的画
Richard Fuld never appeared on the trading floor.
理查德·福尔德从来不去交易所
There was art advisors up there all the time.
一直都是跟艺术顾问在一起
You know, he had his own private elevator,
他还有自己的私人电梯
he was out of his way to be disconnected.
他使劲浑身解数 就为寻个清静
I mean, his elevator,
要知道 他的电梯
they hire technicians to program it, you know,
也是请来技术员设定好
so that his driver would call in in the morning,
这样他的司机早上打电话过来
and a security guard would hold it.
就会有保安按下电梯等他
And there’a only like 2 or 3 seconds window
这中间大概只会空出两三秒时间
when he actually he has to see people,
可能让他被人看到
and he hops in the elevator and he goes straight to 31.
然后就进入电梯 直达三十一层
Lehman owned a bunch of corporate jets,