监守自盗

AA跟破产仍然差很远
No no no. No.
是这样的
That’s, that’s a high investment grade, solid investment grade rating
AA是个很高的固定资产投资评级
Lehman Brothers, A2, within days of failing.
雷曼兄弟在破产前也是AA
Um, AIG, AA, within days of being bailed out.
AIG在接受政府救助时也是AA
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were AAA when they were rescued.
房利美和房地美被拯救时是AAA
Um, Citigroup, Merrill; all, all of ’em had investment grade ratings.
花旗和美林 它们的评级都达到了投资级别
How can that be?
这怎么可能呢
Well, that’s a good question. That’s a great question
这个问题问的好 问的相当好
At no point did the administration ever go to all the major institutions,
政府从来没有去所有的大型机构
and say, this is serious, tell us what your positions are, you know,
说情况很严峻 你们把现状告诉我
uh, no bullshit, where are you?
别胡扯 情况到底如何 有过吗
Well, first, that’s what the regulators,
首先 他们是监管机构
that’s their job, right?
那是他们的职责 对吧
Their job is to understand the exposure
他们的职责就是去了解
across these different institutions,
不同机构中存在的问题
and they have a very refined, uh, understanding
而且他们了解得非常精准
that I think became more respon, more refined
在我看来 随着危机的继续
as the crisis, um, proceeded. So…
而愈加精准
Forgive me, but that’s clearly not true. I’m
很抱歉 但这话显然不对 我
What do you mean, it’s not true?
你说这话不对是什么意思
In August of 2008, were you aware of the
2008年8月时 你是否知晓
the credit ratings held then
雷曼兄弟 美林银行
by Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG
和AIG当时的信用级别
and did you think that they were accurate?
你认为这个评价准确吗
Well, uh, er, uh, certainly by that time, it was clear
当然在那个时候 很明显
that that earlier credit ratings were inaccurate,
之前的信用级别不太精确
because they had been downgraded substantially.
因为他们的信用级别大体在下降
No, they hadn’t.
没有降
Uh, there’s still, there was still some downgrading,
还是有一点 有一点下降的
in terms of the, the industry, concerns of the ind ,
从整个金融业来看 宏观上…
certainly the stock prices
股价当然降了
Not some, all those firms were rated at least A2
一点都没降 直到他们被救助的前几天
until a couple of days before they, uh, were rescued.
那些公司都至少是AA级评级
Well then, you know, then the answer is,
好吧 那我只能说
I just don’t, don’t know enough to
我不 我了解不多
really answer your question on this particular issue.
在这个问题上无力为你答疑解惑
Governor Fred Mishkin is resigning, effective August 31.
弗雷德里克·米什金理事于8月31日正式辞职
He says he plans to return to his teaching post
他说他打算回到哥伦比亚大学
at Columbia’s Graduate School of Business.
研究生学院的教职岗位
Why did you leave the Federal Reserve in August of 2008?
你为什么在08年8月离开美联储
I mean, in, in the middle of the worst financial crisis
就在金融危机最严重的时候
So, so, uh, that, uh, I had to, to revise a textbook.
我要去修正教材
His departure leaves the fed board with
他的离职使得美联储董事会
three of its seven seats vacant
在经济最危急之时
just when the economy needs it most.
七个席位空出三个
Well, I’m sure your textbook is important and widely read.
我确信你的教材很重要 而且读者众多
But in August of 2008, you know,
但在08年8月
some, somewhat more important things were going on in the world,
这个世界上 还有更要紧的事情正在发生
don’t you think?
你不觉得吗
By Friday, September 12th,
到9月12日 星期五
Lehman Brothers had run out of cash,
雷曼兄弟现金耗尽
and the entire investment banking industry was sinking fast.
整个投资银行业正迅速衰退
The stability of the global financial system was in jeopardy.
世界金融体系的稳定也岌岌可危
That weekend, Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner,
那个周末 亨利·保尔森和蒂莫西·盖特纳
president of the New York Federal Reserve
纽约联邦储蓄银行董事长
called an emergency meeting with the CEOs of the major banks
和几大银行的总裁召开了紧急会议
in an effort to rescue Lehman.
目的在于救助雷曼兄弟
But Lehman wasn’t alone.
但还不止雷曼一家
Merrill Lynch, another major investment bank,
美林银行 另一家大型投资银行
was also on the brink of failure.
也处在崩溃边缘
And that Sunday, it was acquired by Bank of America.
在那个周日 它被美国银行接管
The only bank interested in buying Lehman
只有一家银行有意向收购美林
was the British firm Barclays.
那是英国的巴克莱公司
But British regulators demanded
但是英国监管机构
a financial guarantee from the U.S. Government.
要求美国政府进行财务担保
Paulson refused.
保尔森拒绝了
We all jumped into a yellow cab
我们一起上了出租车
and went down to the Federal Reserve Bank.
去联邦储备银行
They wanted the bankruptcy case
他们希望破产事宜
commenced before midnight of September 14.
能在9月14日午夜之前开始
We kept pressing that this would be a, uh, terrible event.
我们一直强调 这件事可能会很严重
And at some point, I used the word “Armageddon.”
这当中 我还用到了”浩劫”这个词
Had they fully considered
他们是否充分考虑过
the consequences of what they were proposing?
他们的提议所带来的后果
The effect on the market would be extraordinary.
这对市场的影响将是巨大的
You said this? Yes.
这是你说的 是的
They just said they had considered
他们只说 我们所说的这些
all of the comments that we had made
他们都已经考虑过
and they were still of the belief
而且他们仍然确信
that in order to calm the markets and move forward
为稳定市场 使其继续运行
it was necessary for Lehman to go into bankruptcy.
雷曼兄弟就必须宣布破产
Calm the markets? Yes.
稳定市场 是的
When were you first told
你第一次听说
that Lehman in fact was going to go bankrupt?
雷曼兄弟将宣布破产是什么时候
Ah, after the fact.
在破产以后
After the fact?
破产以后
Wow. Okay.
好吧
And what was your reaction when you learned of it?
你听说这一消息时 什么反应
Holy cow.
真要命
Paulson and Bernanke had not consulted with other governments
保尔森和伯南克没和其他国家政府商议
and didn’t understand the consequences of foreign bankruptcy laws.
也不明白其他国家破产法将导致的后果
Under British law,
根据英国法律
Lehman’s London office had to be closed immediately.
雷曼兄弟在伦敦的部门必须立即关闭
All transactions came to a halt.
所有的交易都终止了
And there are thousands and thousands and thousands of transactions.
而他们手头有无数 无数 无数的交易
The hedge funds who had had assets with Lehman in London
那些与雷曼有合作的伦敦对冲基金
discovered overnight, to their complete horror,
短短一夜之间 如梦魇一般
that they couldn’t get those assets back.
资产就此套牢其中 拿不回来
One of the points of the hub failed.
核心集团的一员倒下了
And that had huge knock on effects around the system.
而且冲击了整个体系
The oldest money market fund in the nation
本国资历最老的货币市场基金
wrote off roughly three quarters of a billion dollars in bad debt
将由现已破产的雷曼兄弟发行的十亿坏账
issued by the now bankrupt Lehman Brothers.
其中大约四分之三从账面勾销
Lehman’s failure also caused
雷曼兄弟的破产也导致
a collapse in the commercial paper market,
商业票据市场全盘崩溃
which many companies depend on
许多公司都依赖这一市场
to pay for operating expenses, such as payroll.
以便支付运营花销 例如工资
That means maybe they have to lay off employees
这就意味着他们必须裁掉部分员工
they can’t buy parts.
无法买入材料
It stops business in its tracks.
导致商业脱离正常轨道
Suddenly, people stood, and said,
突然之间 人们停下脚步说
Listen, what can we believe in?
还有什么我们可以信任
There’s nothing we can trust anymore.
再没什么值得我们相信了
That same week, AIG owed 13 billion dollars
同一周 AIG欠信用违约互换持有人
to holders of credit default swaps
共130亿美元
and it didn’t have the money.
但它拿不出这笔钱
AIG was another hub.
AIG是核心集团的另外一员
If AIG had stopped, you know,
如果AIG停止运行
all planes may have to be, you know, stop flying.
那么整个行业就要停滞
On September 17th, AIG is taken over by the government.
9月17日 AIG由政府接管
And one day later, Paulson and Bernanke
一天以后 保尔森和伯南克
ask Congress for 700 billion dollars to bail out the banks.
向国会要求政府拨出七千亿救助这些银行
They warn that the alternative
他们警示说如果不救助
would be a catastrophic financial collapse.
将导致灾难性的金融崩盘
It was scary. You know, the entire system froze up
太可怕了 整个体系完全冻结
every part of the financial system,
金融体系内各方各面
every part of the credit system.
信贷体系内各方各面
Nobody could borrow money.
所有人都借不到钱
It was like a cardiac arrest of the global financial system.
如同全球金融体系心脏骤停一般
I’m playing the hand that was dealt me.